February 07, 2010

Strays, Disasters, & Wars to Davos: Governance, Civility and Pragmatics (Update)

The last several weeks continue to be eventful with Haiti continuing to occupy front page space and the nightly news & nightmares, the segue from the SOTU to the 2011 Budget to the conclusions of the WEF's Davos2010 conference who's theme this year was "rethink, redesign and rebuild". There were several central themes that reverberated which we need to dig into and revisit when we get back to looking at international affairs but a central one was a need to regain trust in government, business and leadership by improving performance and governance, and so rebuild trust. Here, here. This being Sunday we're going to focus on that issue because it threads across every session, the problems in Haiti and the problems we're having at home. You've all probably seen more than your share of images but CNN did this marvelous 360' short vidclip where you can pan the view. A word of caution - thes images are too tame because they're largely of a tent city not the devastation and injured. But even as the garden spot they're still terrible.

The Parable of the Stray

In some ways what brings such events home even more than terrible images is heartfelt words and here we look to the words of Haitian ex-pat poet Michele Voltaire Marcelin who's lament for the lost children of Haiti will bring it home. Equally she laments the deep fissures and breakdowns in Haitian society and governance, the legacy of centuries of malfeasance, and applauds the resilience and spirit of the Haitian people.

Were you ever walking down the street when a stray dog came up to you wagging their tail? Hoping for a handout but really looking for a friendly pat on the head and some sense of security and future. How many times did you reach down in pity and sadness to do the feelgood thing? 50%, 75%, 90%, all the time? One of our great epiphanies was the realization that the after petting the dog we'd have to chase them away. In fact the only person in this exchange who'd end up feeling good was ourselves, not the dog. Unless we were prepared to take them home, take care of them and nurture them for a long time. Instead most of us had our "moment" and walked on. Stop and think about that for moment or three. Our hearts may be moved to pity, we may write a check or we may text a contribution but are we really prepared to do for Haiti what needs to be done? In the long run?

Haiti in the Long-run: Head-pats vs. Sustainable Commitment

The international humanitarian community, governments, private enterprises and citizens from around the world have been responding enthusiastically and generously to the crisis. So much so that they are getting in each other's way, sniping about who's plane gets to land or writing WSJ oped pieces about how terrible everything is. Let's get some things straight - this is the worst natural disaster in the Western Hemisphere and the first in modern history in a built-up urban area. It took out the buildings, the streets, the urban infrastructure, the government, the civil service, the NGO's and almost everything else. Couldn't have happened at a worse place - or in some ways worse time since last year Haiti had four major hurricanes that dropped it's GDP by 15%. All that after a democratic regime, so-to-speak was only first installed for the first time in history in the mid-80s and saw the elected President run out in the mid-90s. In fact Haiti has only received semi-serious attention from a legion of do-gooders in the last ten years or so. Most of whom, just as they have in the current disaster, want to parachute in, "pet the dog" and leave feeling good about themselves but not having made any long-lasting contribution. As an example Royal Caribbean was heavily criticized for continuing to stop at its Haitian stopovers. What should they have done instead - not continued? And thrown thousands more Haitians out of work, or not brought in the tons of relief supplies? The really sad thing is that the assistance programs trying to make substantive long term changes, bring in private investment, develop new foundations for the economy and improve governance were actually starting to work before this disaster. The vidclip is a special session on Haiti from Davos and if you don't have time to listen to the entire thing scroll on to the last 5-10 minutes where President Clinton is summarizing things and talking about how to move beyond feelgood gestures to real commitment.

Governance and Civil Society

One of the interesting things we've noticed is a rather old post of ours has attracted a lot of attention this week (Citizenship, Civitas & Stability) - it's a short comment on the role of good government and civil behavior, what we call Civitas, in nurturing society, prosperity and human well-being. In it we quoted a statement of Adam Smith's, who was far less the free-market purist and more the moral philosopher, economic statesman and champion of good government than his more recent ideological followers know or are inclined to accept. He got it exactly right:

"Little else is required to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice."

 The Haiti clip is one of several from the Davos meetings that we've collected in the readings, concentrating on the overview sessions and those that bear directly on the general questions of governance and civil society, including in Afghanistan, Africa and Haiti, as well as on the broader questions of rethinking, redesigning and rebuilding global governance for the challenges of this century. (A slightly fuller review is The Cusp Point is Here: Lessons From Davos).

But let's not get to proud of ourselves for our excellent governance, which was not lightly developed, has a long and bloody history, is replete with many transgressions and sins and that we take all too lightly for granted. In addition to the Davos sessions the Readings section has pointers to two white papers on the nature of good government and an engaged foreign policy built around those principles plus several examples of where they are severely challenged. Including the Congo where the death toll is now larger than the Holocaust but even more widely ignored, the fragile situation in Yemen, and that classic English example - the Wars of the Roses. In case you're not familiar with the history after rising to be the greatest power in Europe the English provoked decades of fratricidal Civil War among the nobility as they competed for place and power. And almost destroyed England in the process. Also included among the examples is the gang rape in Richmond, Ca. last fall of a young girl watched, witnessed and photographed by dozens of bystanders. Good government is not a free gift from on high, it's something you have to work at. Yet it's something all people in all places strive and struggle for. Most of us just happen to be fortunate enough to live in places where we inherit centuries, even millenia, of the slow and painful accumulation of rules, procedures, attitudes and values. Things that can vanish overnight as the Lord of the Flies (here in a clip from the 90s remake) reminds us ( Lord of the Flies (Trailer 1990)).

Re-visiting Good Government: Legitimacy vs. Performance

Defining good government, analyzing its structure and character and evaluating its impacts on social performance is something we've done a lot of. In fact it's been one of our central concerns on this blog and you'll find the two key white papers on the theory and practice below (Good Government for a Stable World). Just to make the point here's the example of the application to Iraq from almost two years ago. There are several key points to make here: 1) good government can take several forms depending on circumstances, 2) it depends critically on the support of the populace, i.e. it must be legitimate in that people know it's doing its best to solve their problems and represent their interests fairly and honestly, 3) it must be effective and efficient in the sense that resources collected must be re-invested in the betterment of society and not squandered on the private pleasures of the governors, 4) you can't magically leap to a new level but must necessarily move along a trajectory from where you're at to where you would like to go but 5) at the end of the day the return is everybody being better off than they would be otherwise (NB: Iraq is enormously better off than it's been for decades. Other examples include China and Russia while the general framework lays out the rules).

Henry VIII, Sir Thomas More and the Rule of Law

The victor of the last great battle of the Wars of the Roses was the Earl of Richmond, who founded the Tudor dynasty. And eventually his greatest direct descendant, Elizabeth I, mothered a golden age for England that was the birthplace of much of the modern world as we know it from culture to policy to the first stirrings of a modern economy and explorations of the world. Along the way her father H8 went thru multiple wives looking for a male heir (ironic isn't it that in the last 1,000 years the greatest English rulers have all been women?). That wasn't only pride and vanity though. For ten millenia the greatest challenge of human government is the transition from one regime to another. When the King was succeeded by a legitimate and competent successor private citizens could have confidence in the long-term prospects of the country...which is when they felt safe in making long-term investments in farms, equipment, roads and new ventures. 

Long-lived, stable and good government is the single most important factor in history in human prosperity. So when Henry couldn't get an heir all that threatened to come crashing down. Perhaps the best illustration of the political manuverings surrounding this little problem was the great movie, "A Man for All Seasons". (NB: the best depictions of the chaos that preceded the Tudors is Richard III).

Of all the many find, marvelous and educational moments in that astonishing movie the one that brings home our key point more than any other, is Sir Thomas More's defense of the Rule of Law. Especially in contrast to the appeals of his wannabe clerk who would sell his soul or anything else to further himself... or his son-in-law who would sell his for ideology. A just, effective and prosperous government doesn't result from private interests gone wild or ideologies riding roughshod over all obstacles. It results from respect for ideals, values and institutions and the very essence of civil society, tolerance and respect. Along with this clip you might "enjoy" this one where Cardinal Wolsey, then Henry's Chancellor, complains of More's "moral squint". Or these, where More, now Chancellor in his own right, confronts the King and is stripped of his office, or the end of his trial.

The governance we enjoy was purchased for as at great and painful cost over centuries by the payments of many unsung true patriots like Sir Thomas More, who built the society and civilization we now live in. And which we need to extend, at least in adapted form, to meet the challenges of this century. So say we all - let's have an Amen please!

UPDATE:

David Warsh of Economic Principals has done us the great favor of tackling Haiti by channeling a recent volume (Natural Experiments of History) edited by Jared Diamond of Guns, Germs & Steel fame. (which if you haven't read is one of the Ur-texts of our methodology). Here are some brief excerpts from What Can Be Done for Haiti:

"Thus climatic and environmental differences were greatly amplified by social histories. After 1930, political differences became even more important. Dictator Rafael Trujillo took control of the Dominican and operated the nation as a family business, emphasizing exports and encouraging tourism, hiring expert foresters from Sweden and Puerto Rico and protecting large tracts of timber from being harvested by others. In Haiti, “Papa Doc” Duvalier ruled from 1957 until 1971 (and his son “Baby Doc” until 1985) without contributing much of anything to the island’s development – least of all forest management. .... The fact about Haiti that stands out above all others in this telling is the marooning of an African population on a Caribbean island, the uniquely violent war of independence that followed, and its legacy of retribution and mutual mistrust – two centuries of near-isolation and estrangement.... And that is the real point of this column. Rebuilding Haiti’s housing stock and physical infrastructure is important. Building its human capital is even more important."

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February 04, 2010

Reality, Politics, Policy & Partisans: the Undiscovered Country

Somedays we feel like the little boy who cried wolf or his cousin who spent all his time shouting at the wind. More and more we feel like the little girl, or the earth sciences prof, who were vacationing in Asia when the tsunami hit and saw the tides recede to the horizon and tried to warn everyone around them and were almost completely ignored. If you understand the dynamics and indicators of certain natural dynamics some things are that easy to read. If you don't they aren't. We feel that way about economic policy and politics in particular but are going to try, once again, to push back the frontiers of the reality distortion field and explore the "undiscovered country" where real policy has real impacts, instead of the partisan positions and pundits pontifications on political process instead of substance. For example in the recent Charlie Rose show or the latest Washing Week in Review all of those defects were on view. The tone of the discussions, and the grasp on reality, is perfectly illustrated in these cartoons but we admit on the recent Rose show where Judd Gregg (one of the most moderate, balanced and public spirited Rep. senators) started off by mouthing the standard party line instead of a non-RDP assessment we turned it off before getting viscerally sick to our heart. So, once more into the breech McDuff, and dammed be he that cries (and cries and cries and...) e'nuff!

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January 31, 2010

The Real SOTU, RDPs, Go-Forward Strategies and Your Country

This week saw the most important State of the Union (SOTU) speech in the lifetimes of many of us. Why? Because, as we've been arguing, we're at the cusp point of deep structural changes that we can choose to deal with constructively or cooperatively and put ourselves on a new path or that we can continue to allow partisan bickering to dominate by supporting lizardbrain appeals to our fears and desperate search for easy answers. Unfortunately the President went into the speech suffering from a Reality Distortion Field (a description of Steve Jobs effect on AAPLphiles intended to be dismissive that fails on delivered results) that have wrapped his efforts, the policies that have been pursued and implemented and no one has bothered to try and decode. In fact from the heights of last year's euphorillusions I've watched successive waves of RDF's overtake first my conservative friends, then my liberal friends and now the independents.

Those multiple fields are built on shock, fear, distortion by partisans, sound byte presentations by the punditocracy and sheer dismay at the magnitude of the challenges, the difficulties of solving them and the raw ugliness of the political process. Welcome to the real world. In some ways these times remind me of the Oxford Debating Union's anti-war resolutions in the late 30's where the peace now and at any cost sorts found themselves a short while later on the beaches at Dunkerque or in Spitfires over Britain or sinking ships or burning tanks in the Mediterranean a few short years later. The general sense of things, defining a baseline if you will, is pretty done by this recent Daily Show episode with Doris Kearns Goodwin.

And the Great Debate we're having is what is the form of government that best suits us? We spent blood and treasure settling the ideological wars of the 20thC. Now we need to decide how to govern a market economy - how to balance commercial interests with the requirements of guardianship. Neither functions well in the long-run without the other and we still haven't figured that out or accepted it. Nor have we figured out how to get there. That will be THE challenge of THIS century!

"The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall our selves, and then we shall save our country. Fellow-citizens, we cannot escape history. We of this Congress and this administration, will be remembered in spite of ourselves. No personal significance, or insignificance, can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass, will light us down, in honor or dishonor, to the latest generation."

Annual Message to Congress (1 December 1862) – A. Lincoln

 

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January 26, 2010

Time For a Gut Check: Populist Fantasies vs. Real-World Realities

Let's shift gears just a little bit and tell our story slightly differently. Instead of complex and abstract graphics we'll let the political cartoonists tell most of it, if not quite all :). Think of this as a preamble to the the upcoming state of the Union and show and tell. We won't even load up our usual load of readings, though there are a few (one we think particularly important - David Brooks' on the misuses of populist appeals and the deliberate creation and manipulation of divisiveness. Otherwise known as selling to the lizardbrain, as we've been calling it for a while now).

We'll set this up by proving a hint - there are two head fakes here, using Randy Pausch's definition of a head fake as something you learn as the real consequence, not the ostensible purpose of an activity.

Can You Here US Now?

The MA. election is being read, and we agreed earlier, as a signal to just how feed up the American people are with business as usual in Washington. Actually we've argued that several other things are going on as well. Fear, the ugliness of the sausage-making that's become so visible, a little local politics and a lot of economic pain.

But when you look around at these four cartoons it certainly captures a part of the zeitgeist, doesn't it? But as you look at each one of them, after you get your chuckle in - and they are admittedly pretty funny - ask yourself how true and accurate they are? Is that the real message and is what's shown what's actually going on?


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January 23, 2010

Back to Carter's Gym: Can We Have an Adult Conversation?

After the Ma. election everyone seems to be running around like a chicken with their heads cut off - the sky is falling, the sky is falling. It may well be but we'd like to introduce two elements of reality. One which we tried to cover - perhaps too gently and politely in the last post - and the other by reviewing some of the last year's policy and impacts, especially economic policy. It makes an interesting contrast to look back a year at what the pundits had to say then and what they are saying now as well as what the President said in and around the Inaugural and what he's saying now. Then the pundits said it was a time of faith, hope and renewal. Now they're claiming hubris, arrogance and error. What the President said this last week in Ohio is what he said at his Inaugural, in Grant Park last Fall and at his nomination in the summer of 2008.

We face tough challenges, we can either walk away from them and they'll get worse. Or we can face up to them, collectively, and pull together, not walking away from them and doing what's right instead of what's popular. Well, based on our analysis - which we're willing to debate on the facts and the frameworks but not on the ideologies or shallow misinterpretations - he's met every challenge head on and done his level best to do the right thing. The MA. backlash is people looking for simple, magic answers and quick fixes, the pundits wringing their hands and the political opposition selling doom to the lizardbrains. 

In the readings you'll find four complete essays collections linked in - two that cover the entirety of the 2008 elections but do it within a policy framework and two reviewing economic policy over roughly the same time period, extended to now. You'll also find two posts URL's from that time period and the entire "Renewing America" series we've been working our way thru but we'll draw your attention to this one in particular:It's Your Life: Change Is Hard, Change We Must, Changing We Are!


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January 20, 2010

Confronting a Cusp Point: Renew, Relapse or Reverse?

We're going to try and wrap up our series of discussions on Renewing America with this final post on the major cusp point we're facing. The central question facing us is whether we collectively opt to confront our challenges and work together to solve them. Or whether we let our not-so-better natures lead us into partisan politics and populist reactions that cause us to relapse into the behaviors that brought us to this point in the first place. Or worse, whether the impulses of our hindbrain so overwhelm the best thinking of our collective forebrains and lead to the reversal of over three centuries of growth and historically unprecedented prosperity. A record of achievement that has served as an exemplar for the world as being an active agent of (mostly) constructive change. Yet, at the same time, those hindbrain impulses have often been the very thing that has enabled us to cope with previous crisis.

The video clip is taken from "The Patriot" which, allowing for dramatic license, is not historically inaccurate. The hero is a Scots-Irish settler who organized his fellow backwoodsmen into an effective and fighting force that was one of the main underpinnings of America's successes in the Revolutionary War (the book to read is Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America by James Webb). But one of the things the Scots-Irish brought with them was an innate distrust of authority and government - largely because thruout 2,000 years of history governments had tried to exterminate them (the Romans twice, the English three times) and then betrayed them multiple times, after exploiting their qualities as fighters (the English again). That populist strain has become infused thruout America and is one of the main under-currents of our culture. The question would then seem to be what behaviors are appropriate in what circumstances and who's likely to pick what? There times when you need a tomahawk and times when you need to "reason together".

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January 15, 2010

Renwing America 4: Time for Some Changes

Just in case you hadn't noticed we're facing a raft of challenges that will be barriers to prosperity for the next decade, and perhaps on into the next. Included among those are an economy that will have to make major structural changes, the need to wrestle with major issues in Healthcare, Education and Energy and a world that's evolving rapidly. At this point we're almost tempted to re-use Andrew Shephard's speech from the American President but figure you've probably heard it enough. The good news is that there are none of these problems that aren't solvable, in fact there are none of them that aren't being addressed. On the whole, about as well as they could be. The better news, in its own perverse way, is that the challenges are "minor" compared to the ones that we faced at previous cusp points historically; whether that was the GD and WW2, the Industrialization of America, the Civil War or the Revolution and the creation of the Republic.

There are two bad pieces of news however. The first is that our biggest challenge, common to all the big problems, is that we need to re-think and re-engineer our institutional framework. The second is that this will required patience, understanding and support from the population at large, in addition to leadership. Changing our institutions will be hard because it calls for re-invention of organizations that have grown up over a century since they were first created and they have accumulated lots of "plaque" and interests. Changing ourselves will be harder. The composite Gallop Poll pretty well captures the disenchantment of the American people. Of course there weren't polls to look at in 1860, 1880 or 1930 so what did we do for guidance then?

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January 10, 2010

Renewing America 3: Re-thinking, -designing & -building for Performance

We are a society of institutions - a large and complex society is too dependent on effective ones for its success, or lack thereof, as it is on any other factor. The institutions that govern our existence were created in the late 19tC and developed between 1890-1920 - and, by and large, haven't changed since then. In fact when you look at the modern University, the modern Hospital or any other major organization its roots lie in this period. That they are that "old" also means that they've been accumulating rules and procedures since then. Back then the populace could take it for granted that effective service, responsiveness and capability would result. Something we not only no longer take for granted but actively doubt. Sadly with fairly good reason. So there we are between a rock and a very hard place. We must have effective institutions to address the problems we must deal with yet the ones we've got are not longer as effective as they were. The questions are then why and what doe that tell us about what we can do about? Policy is merely good intention without results. Translation - in an odd way re-thinking, re-designing and re-structuring our modern institutions is the single most important domestic policy goal we have.

Looking Toward the Future: What We Need to Address

 In the last post (Renewing America 2: Institutions, Values & Performance) we traced out the path from problem to policy to operations to implementation and discussed the problems with the differences between civics textbook ideals and practical realities inside the sausage factory. We also suggested several directions to move forward on. Here we revisit on graphic and add a little detail for each level as well as list the major groups of barriers (assume that the Interest Groups, Partisans and Voter issues recur at each level).

We also suggest some specifics and add a little more detail here without going into engineering specifics. But, for example, the 911 commission found some 15 different committees have intelligence oversight and often issued conflicting guidance. When the Commission called for a more focused oversight no committee was willing to give up its powers. And we've certainly had a sterling lesson in how Congressional voting rules hamstring the legislative process. Every single major piece of legislation has had to be fought tooth and toenail thru the system in the face of bitter partisan and interest group opposition as well as a general lack of voter support (more on that later). What we want to focus on here is agency operations.

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January 05, 2010

Renewing America 2: Institutions, Values & Performance

In case you hadn't noticed today is the first real working day of the new year, and depending on how you count it, of the decade. The last decade began with euphoria to the point of delusion-euphorillusion but quickly came aground against a series of challenges. It ended worse, as if you don't know that. We've managed to avert disaster and step back from the edge of the cliff but have the accumulated detritus of the decade that we must not only clean up but fix and move far beyond. Our last post expressed considerable optimism but accepted the depth and difficulties of the challenges. In our minds the central challenge is in changing our institutions and how they function. But just for starters you might want to review Rick Newman's list of four major problems we need to address. We covered some of that ground in the last post, or at least the readings; they are largely attitudinal but Mr. Newman doesn't propose ways of dealing with them (important as they are).

A while back David Brooks had a pair of opeds that discussed the "The Protocol Society" and "The God That Fails" that begins to. In the first when he talks about protocol he's really talking about the rules that govern our society, what the folks who study it call institutions. They can be formal, for example court systems, government or churches. Or they can be informal, holding the door for someone, norms of behavior and other rules of behavior. But they are the embodied and accumulated learnings from past experience captured in organizations and rules and they govern our lives.

Theory vs. Practice: Policy-making in the Real World

The path from voters wants and needs to new policy to actual implementation is governed by these institutions and it'll pay us to understand how they work vs. how they're supposed in the ideal world of your h.s. civics textbook. In the ideal world wants and needs are supposed to be translated by our represenatives into the best working compromise they can come up with and result in legislation. In turn that is turned over to the Federal agencies to be taken down into more detail and result in a set of detailed regulations to implement.


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January 01, 2010

Renewing America 1: Hard, Doable and Necessary

It's the New Year so we thought we'd take stock and look ahead, as so many others are doing. For the most part everybody accepts it's been our roughest decade for a long time, that it began with Trouble and ended with TROUBLE and that much of it was self-inflicted. While we agree with most of that, as you can tell by reading almost any post here, we also find ourselves strangely optimistic in general, for several reasons. Not for just emotional ones though that too but for substantive ones as well.

There's no denying that we have a lot of challenges and barriers in front of us, either. But, not to be too pollyannish about, the critical requirement is the heart of the people. We can choose to rise to these challenges or not. America has always shown a great deal of resilience, combined of course with a profound ability to get itself into position where that resilience is necessary. As a fellow sailor said about Lord Mountbatten, "there's no body better to be in terrible trouble with .... and nobody who'll get you in terrible trouble faster than Dickie".

So, can we get ourselves out of trouble here or not?

 The answer to that question is THE central issue we will wrestle with for a long time.

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