WRFest 25Nov07:...the Beat Goes On
The melody continues with several continued and reinforcing themes from the last WRFest posting. The good news from Iraq continues due to the new counter-insurgency strategy combined with a better understanding of Iraqui tribes and closer cooperation in the field. Sadly that painfully developed awareness and adaptation in Iraq is not reflected in our understanding of how the various sub-cultures in Pakistan shape that society and influence our diplomacy. A very interesting article of the difficulties Europe is having and facing with adjusting the large and growing Muslim sub-culture and the critical importance of doing so is in the Values section.
And the Int'l Affairs section has good articles on China, Russia, Australia, Mexico, Japan and France. It's interesting to note that Germany under Merkel and, now, France under Sarkozy are finally coming to grips with the need for the deep changes that Britain started under Thatcher and continued to the present day. We'll see how they do. Meanwhile of course Russia has gone thru even deeper changes and now "that the pride is back" is feeling its' oats with an increasingly aggressive foreign policy and defense buildup. While not all the postings are ones I agree with they're all mostly thoughtful and worth your time, though most align with my own views. In this case the posting on Russia's military buildup highlights a strategic threat which is real but misreads Russia's intentions and purposes - somethine we hope to dive into deeper in the future.
Speaking of profound change consider China and India. More people have better off and moved away and even out of poverty in the last two decades than at any time in human history. They have done so largely on the strength of their adoption of market-oriented socio-economic reforms. This is a critically important and historic milestone and one we hope continues. A result that's beginning to emerge is the growth of better-off middle classes with significant disposable income. That's a transition that really only happened broadly in the US post-WW2 and defined the shape of our society today. It happened in Europe and Japan as the result of the "Wirtschaftswunder", the economic miracle of the late 50s and 60s when their economies were not only rebuilt but transformed (in Europe in particular largely thru the impetus and aid and guidance of the Marshall Plan). As another sidebar worth exploring the role of the US in creating the benign environment for some of the greatest advances in recent history is worth keeping in mind; aside from Europe and Japan it was US influence, support, defense protection and spending that allowed South Korea and Taiwan to stabilize, grow and prosper.
On the other hand we certainly aren't solely responsible nor have we been as effective elsewhere, in the Middle East for example where progress has been hampered unlike any in the rest of the world by bad attitudes and ideological, almost religious, mis-perceptions that have PREVENTED adoption and adaptation. More than one person has argued that at a high level the mental game is 90% of winning among elite atheletes. Well culture, ideology and value systems seems to be equally important for countries.
An arguement we're in the process of continuing to evaluate and test in our primary elections processes where clear leaders have emerged but where they remain vulnerable and no great vision has emerged that addressed the challenges of our times. One of the occaisional shoutouts that wafts around is the threat to the middle class, the lack of new industries and engineers, and the lack of economic opportunity that's emerging. What's been true but they fail to mention is that it's not so much a lack of Engineers per se but a lack of science and engineering jobs. Equally an example of wrong-headed thinking based on a failure to dig thru the nature of things is the growing Ethanol bust. BtW - this is not a "black swan" - plenty of folks warned about these problems even before the legislation was passed.
Will this be our acide test as a society in the next decade or so - the ability to develop and implement innovative new social policies based on the best collective thinking ? And the cocomittan ability to suppress the pandering to narrow interest groups at the expense of the broader interests served by that best thinking ? What would we need to do get such changes in the way we do things ? Now there's a great challenge.
And until we answer it constructively and workably have we any grounds to wag our fingers at, for example, the Arabs and the Palestinians for being trapped in their old shibboleth bound mental prisons ?
Special & General
Petraeus's Iraq I've just returned from a week in Iraq with Gen. David Petraeus and his operational commanders. My intent was to look at events from an operational perspective and assess the surge. What I got was a soldier's sense of what's happening on the ground and, although the jury is still out on the surge, I came to the conclusion that we may now be reaching the "culminating point" in this war. The culminating point marks the shift in advantage from one side to the other, when the outcome becomes irreversible: The potential loser can inflict casualties, but has lost all chance of victory. The only issue is how much longer the war will last, and what the butcher's bill will be. Battles usually define the culminating point. In World War II, Midway was a turning point against the Japanese, El Alamein was a turning point against the Nazis and after Stalingrad, Germany no longer was able to stop the Russians from advancing on their eastern front. Wars usually culminate before either antagonist is aware of the event. Abraham Lincoln didn't realize Gettysburg had turned the tide of the American Civil War. In Vietnam, the Tet offensive proved that culminating points aren't always military victories. Culminating points are psychological, not physical, happenings. But successful counterinsurgency operations don't capture fixed objectives. They create what soldiers call "white spaces," areas devoid of influence, political vacuums that compel occupancy by either an enemy seeking to rebound after defeat or by legitimate government forces seeking to establish regional control. In Iraq now, the white spaces are being filled with a newly resurgent Iraqi military and clusters of Concerned Local Citizens Councils, which sprouted spontaneously as Sunni tribal sheikhs smelled both success and commitment from us. To be sure, Baghdad and the surrounding belts are not yet safe. But culminating points are psychological events. What I witnessed firsthand in Iraq was a shift in opinions and a transfer of will among Iraqis, not a classic military takedown. This change was palpable and unmistakable. Whether this military culminating point can translate into a political and economic culminating point remains to be seen. But the campaign that took place from spring until late summer reinforces the classic tenet of warfare, that success on the ground sets the conditions for diplomatic and political success. Retired Major Gen. Scales, a former commandant of the Army War College, is president of Colgen Inc., a defense consulting firm.
Values and Attitudes
Old Fears, New Threats Europe’s fears of Islam are reminiscent of the old anti-Semitism--but not as much as some people think. It is hard to avoid comparing this new animosity toward Muslims to the traditional manifestations of a much older hatred--anti-Semitism. The fear of a minority that practices an unfamiliar form of worship and is believed to be worming its way into Christian or Western culture, undermining its values, shaped the relationship between Europe and the Jews in its midst for hundreds of years. The temptation to draw parallels between past and present is unquestionably strong--but is it justified? There are certainly some notable points of similarity between prewar European anti-Semitism and the enmity directed toward the Muslim immigrants living in Europe now. However, there is a quintessential difference between the two: The fear of a Jewish conspiracy against European civilization had no basis in fact, whereas fear of the expansionist ambitions openly expressed by senior figures in the Muslim-Arab world, and shared by some ordinary Muslims, is not groundless. It is not, therefore, the specific external signs of the Muslim presence that arouse feelings of fear and aversion, but rather what they represent to the European collective consciousness. That is, it is the resonance projected onto them by non-Muslim Europeans. The explanation for Islamophobia is to be found, therefore, not in simple xenophobia, but in one of Islam's more abstract features, and one which it shares with Judaism: the fact that it is a religion and a nation capable of being imagined, even from afar. There is no escaping the obvious conclusion: From a purely ideological point of view, European fear of Islam is not mistaken. The Muslim believer living on the Continent is potentially exposed to an ideology that imposes upon him a religious and political duty to proselytize Christians and impose the rule of the Islamic nation everywhere possible, including Europe itself. But life is more complicated than the abstract theories of clerics. In the real world, most (though not all) Muslim immigrants in Europe are not rallying to the cause of the Islamic nation, or are rejecting it outright. One of the major reasons for this difference between theory and practice is the weak religious sentiments of many immigrants.
Int’l Affairs
Dissidents Take On Beijing Via Media Empire New Tang Dynasty TV started as an effort by U.S.-based Falun Gong members -- many immigrants from China -- to speak out against a government crackdown back home, but it has evolved into a broadcaster with big aspirations. New Tang Dynasty broadcasts to the U.S., Europe and Asia, including China. It is one of a growing number of media organizations run mostly by Falun Gong practitioners, including a radio station and a newspaper with editions in 10 languages. There is also a film-production company, a performing-arts school, dozens of Web sites and a Chinese cultural show, which has played around the world, including New York's Radio City Music Hall and the Kennedy Center in Washington. For Chinese officials and other Falun Gong opponents, the growing influence of NTD is evidence of their longstanding assertion that the group was never just a spiritual movement. NTD and its sister organizations report frequently on Falun Gong-related news and often focus on negative news out of China. They have also sometimes played up stories discredited by Western media and human-rights groups, such as China's alleged systemic harvesting of the organs of detained Falun Gong practitioners for use in transplants. At the same time, NTD's programs, broadcast in Chinese and English, address issues that remain largely off-limits to China's state-controlled media, from political corruption to the spread of the infectious disease SARS in the country in 2003.
China Stand on Imports Upsets U.S. Few American industries have had more success in selling goods to China than makers of medical devices like X-rays, pacemakers and patient monitors. Which is why a recent Chinese decree was so troubling. The directive, issued in June, called for burdensome new safety inspections for foreign-made medical devices — but not for those made in China. The Bush administration is crying foul. Even more worrisome to the administration is that the directive seems part of a recent pattern in which Chinese officials issue new regulations aimed at favoring Chinese industries over foreign competitors, despite efforts by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. to ease economic tensions.
A Guerrilla Riddle in Modern Mexico The attacks by a shadowy Marxist guerrilla group on Mexico's gas pipelines reveal how beneath the country's apparent modernity lies an undercurrent of violence and mysterious subterranean allegiances. Mexico has made huge strides in the past two decades. It opened up its closed economy and signed a free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada. It scrapped 71 years of one-party rule under the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, for what is today a functioning democracy. It is now the U.S.'s third-largest trade partner, producing everything from cars to refrigerators. But sometimes breaking through the apparent modernity is an undercurrent of violence and mysterious subterranean allegiances, the so-called "Mexico bronco," or untamed Mexico. Spinning conspiracy theories is a favorite pastime here, and the EPR affair has generated many. Some suggest the group is being used to further the ends of drug lords or even the government itself. More than posing a parlor-game riddle, though, the EPR's resurgence presents big political and economic challenges. President Felipe Calderón already has his hands full trying to wrest back control of large areas of Mexico from powerful drug cartels. Now he must deal with this unexpected guerrilla resurgence in a political atmosphere that still simmers with anger over last year's closely fought election, lost by a hair by left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The EPR's campaign also exposes the vulnerability of Mexico's natural-gas infrastructure. State oil company Pemex was so stunned by the July attacks that it took several days to publicly acknowledge them. Natural gas is already in short supply in Mexico, which supplements its production with expensive imports from Texas. Vitro SA, a Monterrey-based glassmaker, says the EPR attacks halted production for a week, a $12 million stoppage that drove the company into the red for the third quarter.
The Soft Underbelly of Europe Though no longer the chief delinquent of Europe, and though not much thought is given to its strategic position, Germany is still Europe's center of gravity, territorially contiguous to more nations than any state other than Russia, with compact interior lines of communication, Western Europe's largest population, and Europe's leading economy. Facts like these assert themselves through every kind of historical fluctuation, even if America now sees Germany, the way stop for airlifters en route to Iraq and Afghanistan, as a kind of giant aircraft carrier with sausages. But Germany is no doubt the subject of far deeper consideration on the one hand by Russia and on the other by Jihadists. But as Western Europe dismantles its militaries, Russia builds, encouraged as much by European pacifism as by the Russian view of America's struggle in Iraq as a parallel to the Soviet's fatal involvement in Afghanistan. Like Germany between the wars, Russia is now eager and determined to reconstitute its forces, and with its new-found oil wealth, it is doing so. How fortuitous for it, then, that the United States is expending military capital without replenishment, and Europe has spiritually resigned from its own defense, with Germany, for example, now devoting only 1.4% of its GDP to the task. Having been deeply humiliated in recent years, Russia is sure to seek redress if not in action then at least in the power to act. Nations behave this way, it has always been so, and as the balance of power in Europe and the world is shifting, Germany, the strategic gate to Western Europe and by its nature and position that which stabilizes or disrupts the continent, sleeps and dreams unaware.
Sarkozy Gains Upper Hand as Striking Transit Workers Return to Their Jobs French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be gaining the upper hand in his confrontation with striking transit workers -- a fight he can ill afford to lose. More employees reported to work on the walkout's third day today, train and bus service increased and union leaders expressed a willingness to negotiate over Sarkozy's proposal to rein in their pension benefits. The president is staking much of his economic agenda on the battle, which he says is essential to his plans for increasing France's competitiveness. The outcome is likely to set the tone for similar struggles still to come. While an extended dispute would further sap his popularity -- even before the strike snarled train service, his approval ratings dropped to their lowest levels since he took office in May -- making too many concessions to gain a quick settlement would convey a message of political weakness. At issue now is Sarkozy's proposal to make employees in the transport, energy and some smaller industries work 40 years instead of 37.5 to earn full pensions. About 500,000 workers out of France's total workforce of about 27 million enjoy the lesser requirement. Most others are covered by a 2003 labor-contract overhaul that included the 40-year requirement. The pensions are part of a more ambitious Sarkozy agenda aimed at loosening work rules, simplifying France's tangle of more than two dozen labor contracts, increasing competition in several industries and making civil servants more publicly accountable.
Strike Is Referendum on Sarkozy, Unions As France's national transit strike enters its eighth day, the standoff is shaping up as a contest over whom French people detest more: their new president or the entrenched labor unions that have ground the country to a near halt. Railway, bus and metro workers are protesting a government plan to curtail special pension benefits that allow them to retire at ages from 50 to 55 rather than the minimum cutoff of 60 that applies to most other French people. Although some workers have resumed duties, key train and metro lines weren't running yesterday. Both sides are at a crossroad. For Mr. Sarkozy, whose plans for sweeping economic changes look less palatable than originally thought, winning the transit-strike tussle is crucial to making progress on the rest of his economic agenda. Mr. Sarkozy, won office in May with a promise he would jolt France's sluggish economy into action through tax cuts, changes in labor law and other measures aimed at making companies more competitive. He has the political legitimacy to push for the changes; he won the vote with a clear lead, and his ruling UMP party holds a strong majority in Parliament.
Moving Up in Mumbai Tens of millions of Indians are taking their first steps into the salaried class by selling goods and services to the increasingly free-spending upper crust. Their swelling ranks represent a kind of swing vote in how far India can spread the fruits of its rapid expansion. At Pantaloon, they were brushing up against a lifestyle they hope to be fully part of some day. Equipped with new cellphones, the three men took to speaking to one other in English, a language they rarely used before. They also absorbed the latest Bollywood fashion trends, buying knock-off designer jeans from street markets rather than paying Pantaloon's prices of $20 to $70 a pair. On weekends after work, they would hang outside dance clubs, anxious to see the clubbers' outfits. "I will spend money like them someday," said Mr. Bhatade. Such basic sales jobs, unremarkable and often derided in the West, are providing careers, confidence, and a shot at entering the consumer class to millions of impoverished young men and women across India. As their ranks swell, these children of slum dwellers, servants, sweepers and others low on the socioeconomic totem pole are forming a new stratum of workers. They are likely to play an important role in determining the future of the world's second-most-populous nation. Until recently, much of the new wealth in India went to college-educated computer programmers, consultants and call-center workers. While they have made the country's technology industry a new pillar of global commerce, the total number employed by the software industry is still only about two million -- less than 0.2% of India's 1.1 billion population. At the other end of the spectrum, India still has more than 200 million people who live below the poverty line, mostly farmers. Between the two are tens of millions of Indians, mostly city dwellers in their 20s and 30s, who are taking their first steps into the salaried class by selling goods and services to the increasingly free-spending upper crust. They represent a kind of swing vote in how far India can spread the fruits of its rapid expansion. Annual economic growth has averaged more than 8.5% for the past four years, but much of the benefits have accrued to the old industrial families and the tech-savvy few.
Capturing China's Middle Market When "good enough" is best. Attention global corporations: China wants to boost its internal consumption, a lot. That's the message from Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who recently opened the National People's Congress with a set of growth policies aimed at speeding up economic progress in remote provinces. These moves should only intensify the pressure on Western firms to build a strong position in a key market. Historically, multinationals have focused on China's premium market. But the playing field over the last few years has changed rapidly. Multinationals sticking with a premium-only strategy are increasingly under attack from emerging Chinese champions with a compelling offering: fairly reliable products at prices low enough to attract China's growing ranks of mid-level consumers. Indeed, China's middle market is growing faster than both the premium and low-end segments. In some categories, the "good enough" space already accounts for nearly half of all revenues. Eight out of every 10 washing machines and televisions now sold in China, for instance, are "good enough" brands. After succeeding in their domestic market, emerging Chinese champions' next stop is the global stage. Success in China has therefore become a global strategic priority for multinationals -- both offensive (winning in what is rapidly emerging as a top-three global market in every industry) and defensive (preventing new competitors from emerging).
China Uses `Tai Chi' Diplomacy to Build Influence, Challenge U.S. Power The source was China's Office of the Chinese Language Council International, which has opened 135 Confucius Institutes worldwide. The office is part of a broad campaign involving investment and diplomacy as well as cultural outreach, all aimed at hastening China's progress toward great-power status. The campaign, combined with China's economic growth and military modernization, forms a challenge that U.S. politicians are starting to notice and policy makers will likely be fending off for years. It is a classic example of what Harvard University professor Joseph Nye has dubbed ``soft power'': building authority through persuasion rather than coercion.
Jacek Rostowski, a U.K.-born economics professor who now finds himself finance minister of Poland, is seeking calm amid a job-seeking exodus of two million Poles. Now, the graduate of the London School of Economics and economics professor at Central European University in Budapest must make good on Mr. Tusk's pledge to deliver an "economic miracle" that will slow and eventually reverse a job-seeking exodus of two million Poles to Western Europe. The recipe would be a mixture of public spending curbs, tax cuts and a downsized and deregulated public sector. "I like the idea we picked an economist of the British school," said Civic Platform's Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, who ran Poland's central bank for most of the 1990s and is now mayor of Warsaw. "He'll reduce the fiscal deficit, like Gordon Brown did as chancellor of the Exchequer, but not in a way that will hurt economic growth." However, this program must be squared with Mr. Tusk's campaign promises to lift wages for underpaid teachers and doctors, while replacing a crumbling road system with a thousand miles of gleaming motorway as part of vast infrastructure investments co-financed with the European Union.
Howard's End Another great prime minister who didn't know when to quit. For Mr. Howard's career is ending in failure, if ever one did, and there is no way now that he can "walk free." That's right. The 12-year-old government of John Winston Howard -- Australia's second longest serving prime minister and patron saint of conservatives in the Antipodes -- faces political annihilation this Saturday. So much so that the 68-year-old Houdini of politics down under is in danger of losing the very seat he has held for nearly 35 years. It was not supposed to end like this. When he celebrated a decade in power 20 months ago, Mr. Howard was widely praised as a legendary figure on the global stage, with an approval rating of 64%. The high praise, to be sure, was justified. In 1995, Mr. Howard had inherited a party that had chalked up its fifth election defeat, only to lead it to win four elections on the trot. In power, the man President George W. Bush dubbed the "man of steel" fundamentally transformed the political landscape. He cut taxes, reformed welfare, balanced the national books, wiped out government debt, loosened organized labor's grip on business, and presided over the longest economic boom since the gold rushes of the 19th century. In the culture wars, he aligned himself with the silent majority against the metropolitan sophisticates. Under his leadership, Australia led the 1999 peacekeeping effort in East Timor and has been deeply involved in countering terrorism in Australia's local neighborhood and in farther flung areas, like the Middle East and Afghanistan. That was back then -- March 2006. The public's admiration and respect for him has today turned into boredom or, in some cases, outright hostility. Words such as "sad," "petty," "arrogant," "desperate," "tired" and "out-of-touch" are freely used to describe him. Economic growth is now so strong that the nation's central bank keeps hiking interest rates, aggravating many swing voters who are mortgaged to the hilt. In conservative circles, there is much sighing and shaking of heads. If ever there were a political conundrum, this is it. Australia is the envy of the industrialized world. Unemployment, at 4.2%, is at historic lows; commodity exports are booming; and Aussies are fat and happy. Pace Tony Blair's 1997 campaign theme, things can hardly get better. And yet Aussies are about to throw out a colossus. Why?
Kanseifukyo Threatens Koizumi Prosperity as Japan Embraces Re-Regulation Little more than a year after Junichiro Koizumi stepped down as prime minister, his legacy of deregulation and a revitalized economy is eroding as Japan's bureaucrats adopt new rules that may strangle growth. New regulations that discourage construction and business lending add another burden to an economy already weighed down by slowing growth in the U.S., Japan's biggest export market. That's giving investors reason to shun Japan, whose Topix stock benchmark is Asia's worst performer this year, down more than 14 percent. The Bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast after new Land Ministry regulations in June tightened the building-permit process, sending housing starts to a 40-year low. Japan has had 29 prime ministers since World War II, and 11 since an asset-price bubble burst in 1990. The turnover at the top has created a climate in which career government officials wield great influence over policy. Koizumi, 65, managed to break -- or at least sidestep -- the pattern. Inheriting an economy in recession in 2001 and a banking system teetering on collapse, he cut public-works projects, forced banks to dispose of bad debts and privatized the post office. That paved the way for a period of growth that, while averaging only 2 percent, is the country's longest expansion since the war. The relative prosperity allowed politicians and officials to move out of crisis mode. The new wave of regulations ``reflects a shift in priorities as the economic pressures stemming from the 1990s fade, allowing attention to turn to other areas,'' says Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. The shift contributed to the plunge in construction, which Jeff Kingston, a political science professor at Temple University in Tokyo, calls a case of ``good intentions, unintended consequences.''
ME
The Perils of Engagement The U.S. can't prevent the Palestinians and their Arab backers from making poor choices.It is increasingly de rigueur around the world and, for that matter, in certain segments of the Democratic Party, to place responsibility for all international crises on the U.S. government. Unsurprisingly, therefore, when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, it has attained the level of high fashion to ascribe the persistent absence of peace to a lack of adequate U.S. "engagement" in resolving it. This analysis, simple and neat, and for so many so satisfying, would seem at odds with the historical record. The problem is that all too often, those who blame the U.S. for failing to deliver Mideast peace are some of the world's most culpable enablers of Mideast violence -- and those who are themselves actually responsible for erecting the fundamental roadblocks to a resolution of the conflict. This is so obvious as to almost go without saying -- except that the penchant for placing the blame on the U.S. is so widespread and so addictive that it goes largely unsaid. It was, of course, the Arab bloc, including the Palestinian leadership, that decided to reject the U.N.'s 1947 partition of Palestine into two states, Arab and Jewish, living side by side. Instead it invaded the nascent Jewish state rather than coexist with it, spawning the conflict that has so burdened the world for the last 60 years. This was not a decision made by the U.S. We are also not responsible for the Arab world's choice not to create a Palestinian Arab state in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank from 1948 to 1967, when it easily could have done so -- before there were any Jewish settlements there to serve as the public object of Arab grievance.
LEADERSHIP: Sunni Warlords Reconsider The centuries old battle between Sunni and Shia Moslems in Iraq has just shifted gears. Sunni Arab groups that have been fighting since 2003 to regain power, have renounced their 2004 alliance with al Qaeda and sought to eliminate al Qaeda militias in their territory. What is unclear, both to foreigners and the Shia dominated government of Iraq, is what the Sunni Arab warlords will do next. Now, this is the critical thing that many Americans don't understand, or even know. When Saddam was deposed in 2003, most (well, many) Sunni Arabs believed they would only be out of power temporarily. This sort of thing you can pick up on the Internet (OK, mostly on Arab language message boards, but it's out there). Saddam's followers (the Baath Party) and al Qaeda believed a few years of terror would subdue the Shia, and the Sunni Arabs would return to their natural state as the rulers of Iraq. U.S. troops quickly figured out what was going on . That's because, since Sunni Arabs were the best educated group, most of the local translators the troops used were Sunni Arabs, and even these guys took it for granted that, eventually, the Sunni Arabs would have to be in charge if the country were to function. The Sunni Arabs believed the Shia were a bunch of ignorant, excitable, inept (and so on) scum who could never run a government. Four years later, the Shia have proved the Sunni Arabs wrong. Now many Sunni Arabs want to make peace, not suicide bombs. But there are still basic differences about how the country should be run. Many Iraqis believe only a dictator can run the country, and force all the factions to behave. However, a majority of Iraqis recognize that dictatorships tend to be poor and repressive, while democracies are prosperous and pleasant. The problem is that the traditions of tribalism and corruption (everything, and everyone, has their price) do not mesh well with democracy. This doesn't mean democracy can't work under these conditions, many do. It does mean that it takes more effort, and the results are not neat and clean, as Americans expect their democracies to be.
Give The Future a Chance The war in Afghanistan is all about a few Pushtun tribes trying to maintain their independence, retain lost powers or gain control of the national government. While that sounds contradictory, it makes sense in Afghanistan. The term "Taliban" has come to be the term for the several million Pushtun tribesmen who oppose the current national government. Such tribal coalitions, and their rebellious behavior, are nothing new in Afghan history. This is normal for Afghanistan, although the current round of violence is also part of a long term trend to curb tribal power. And "long term" is not what the current allies (NATO and the U.S.) of the national government want to hear. But without the foreign troops, Afghan would be partitioned, and embroiled in a civil war between the Pushtun tribes, with the non-Pushtun tribes standing aside, or taking part, as their own internal politics dictated. All this would be paid for by the sale of heroin. That would irritate Afghanistan's neighbors (particularly Iran and Pakistan, which already have a serious drug addiction problem), as well as the rest of the world. You either take care of it now, or deal with it later. The Pushtun Civil War
THE U.S.'S NO. 2 DIPLOMAT will try to push Musharraf back on a democratic path, but officials are mapping out other scenarios should the Pakistani leader ignore Washington's counsel. America's No. 2 diplomat arrives in Pakistan today in a high-profile bid to push the country's military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, back on a democratic path. But behind the scenes, a number of current and former U.S. officials are mapping out other scenarios for the nuclear-armed South Asian nation should its leader ignore Washington's strategic counsel. In the worst case, U.S. strategists increasingly fear Pakistan could become a pariah state where Gen. Musharraf's repressive policies drastically feed an Islamist uprising, one that derails Islamabad's place as a pro-Western state set in the strategically important pivot point between China and Central Asia. The analogy they commonly cite is Iran, whose pro-American leader, Shah Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in 1979 and replaced with a revolutionary Islamist government that has destabilized the region, exporting terrorism and anti-Western policies for nearly three decades.
Turning point for Turkey For nearly a month, Turkey has been on the brink of launching a military offensive into northern Iraq. Such an incursion, if and when it happens, has the potential of damaging relations with the west and jeopardizing this country's hard-won role as an emerging economic power. With a booming economy, Turkey is attracting unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment. After years of dysfunctional coalition governments, it finally attained some political stability in 2002 when the Islamist-rooted AKP Party formed a single-party government committed to fiscal discipline. A predominantly Muslim country, Turkey has strong secularist traditions and maintains strict separation between church and state. The median age of Turkey's 72 million people is 28.
Politics and Policies
Poll Suggests Clinton Is Vulnerable Democrats enter the 2008 election campaign with powerful political advantages but face a tough and unpredictable battle because of the vulnerabilities of front-runner Hillary Clinton and the Democratic-controlled Congress. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Americans have turned sharply away from President Bush and toward domestic issues favoring his partisan adversaries. Majorities believe the Iraq war can't be won and want most U.S. troops withdrawn by the dawn of a new president's term in 2009. But offsetting that demand for change in the presidential contest are reservations about Sen. Clinton's truthfulness and ideology, even as Americans applaud her experience and leadership qualities. The result: She is in a virtual dead heat with leading Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani when the two are matched up.
Clinton, Democratic Rivals Praise Balanced Budgets, Plan Spending Spree Hillary Clinton and her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination are promising new domestic programs, tax cuts for the middle class and a return to balanced budgets. One problem: Their numbers don't add up. The top candidates, Clinton, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, all propose more than $150 billion a year in tax breaks for middle- income earners and new federal spending on health care, energy and education. They also pledge ``fiscal responsibility,'' a phrase Clinton used seven times during an Oct. 30 debate. While vowing to rein in the alternative minimum tax, they won't say how they would fix the levy, which is set to raise $400 billion over five years, increasingly ensnaring the middle class. They also rely too much on rolling back tax cuts for the wealthy and overestimate savings from closing loopholes and improving health-care technology, budget experts say.
Comparative Health Care The Left's story of health international health care comparisons is the following:
- The U.S. system is flawed.
2. Other countries' systems work much better.
3. The U.S. system relies on the free market.
4. There are two systems of health care in the developed world--ours, and the one every other country uses
Beyond Those Health Care Numbers., Paul Krugman, Your Doctor Is Calling
The U.S. Doesn’t Lack Engineers, It Lacks Engineering Jobs
The tech sector and academe constantly warn that a shortage of engineers and scientists threatens the U.S.’s competitiveness, but the U.S. actually has a glut of science professionals, say some researchers quoted in the Chronicle of Higher Education. The federal dollars pumped into university science departments has created more scientists and engineers than the market wants, said Michael S. Teitelbaum, vice president of Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, which sponsors research, at a hearing in Congress last week. Mr. Teitelbaum said the federal government should find a way to adjust how it funds university research so that university departments don’t end up using the extra money to add graduate students and postdoctoral fellows. Engineers and scientists have started to grumble about poor job prospects. Many advise their children against going following in their footsteps, says Harold Salzman, who has interviewed engineers at technology firms as part of his work for policy think tank the Urban Institute. The problem isn’t the supply of trained engineers but firms’ difficulties in paying them a competitive salary, he says. As a result, talented science graduates are finding it easier and more lucrative to land nonscience jobs after college, as are engineers in the middle of their careers.
Ethanol Bust Makes Losers of Bush, Gates, Archer Daniels Midland in 2007 Ethanol, the centerpiece of President George W. Bush's plan to wean the U.S. from oil, is 2007's worst energy investment. The corn-based fuel tumbled 57 percent from last year's record of $4.33 a gallon and drove crop prices to a 10-year high. Production in the U.S. tripled after Morgan Stanley, hedge fund firm D.E. Shaw & Co. and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla helped finance a building boom. Even worse for investors and the Bush administration, energy experts contend ethanol isn't reducing oil demand. Scientists at Cornell University say making the fuel uses more energy than it creates, while the National Research Council warns ethanol production threatens scarce water supplies. As oil nears $100 a barrel, ethanol markets are so depressed that distilleries are shutting from Iowa to Germany. An investor who put $10 million into ethanol on Dec. 31 now has $7.5 million, a loss of 25 percent. Florida and Georgia have banned sales during the summer, when the fuel may evaporate and create smog.