Parts to Wholes: the Socionomic Systems Nexus

Re-thinking the Mechanism: Facing Realities

• Hidden Issues and Government Reform: the Politics of Special Interests

• Unintended Consequences: Blowing Off Our Own Feet

• WRFest 20Jan08(Economics): Oops...Recession Ahead
  

• Standing Corrected: Education 2nd Avoiding Economic Collapse 1rst

• Readings (Economy): It Really is the Economy, Stupid Frog

Energy & Environment

In Search of a Nat'l Energy Policy: Check the Mirror Pogo

High Gas Prices Will Help Auto Industry Auto makers are slashing jobs, closing factories and revamping of their product strategies to cope with $4 a gallon gas. What's the worst thing that could happen now? Gas could get cheap again, says the man who runs America's biggest car retailer. But Mr. Jackson's point of view about energy policy and the auto industry isn't based on concerns about this month's sales. What has him worried, he says, is that in the future he -- and by extension the whole auto industry -- will be stuck trying to make sense of a fundamentally incoherent national energy strategy, which was mirrored by the seemingly incoherent product strategies that the big U.S. auto makers were pursuing until $130 a barrel oil blew them up. Mr. Jackson confronts a daunting challenge trying to read American culture and make intelligent bets about what consumers will want to drive. If he looks in one direction, he sees a widespread consensus that, for a combination of environmental and national security reasons, Americans should consume less oil. To that end, Americans want the auto industry to speed production of electric vehicles and high-mileage, gasoline-electric hybrids, while substantially improving the mileage of conventional oil-powered cars. But when Mr. Jackson looks in the other direction he sees a widespread consensus that Americans shouldn't have to pay $4 a gallon or more for gasoline, and a Congress that in an election year has put driving down gas prices at the top of its agenda. Further, he confronts the inertia of more than half a century of automotive marketing investment in teaching consumers that size and power are what make a vehicle desirable, and worth more money.

Oil debate: Looking beyond drilling This week's push for increased U.S. oil drilling - both offshore and in Alaska - is part of a longer-standing debate about the best way to solve the energy crisis: tap domestic reserves or put more emphasis on developing alternatives? Presumed Republican presidential candidate John McCain called Tuesday for opening more fields off the East and West coasts to drilling. On Wednesday, President Bush reiterated that call and urged development of fields in protected land in Alaska, something McCain still opposes. But experts say additional drilling would only boost production by about 2 million barrels a day. That's about 20% of domestic oil production, but only about 2% of total worldwide demand, so its impact on prices would likely be marginal. In short, it's not a long-term solution to the nation's energy challenge. Some say a real solution lies in the government embarking on a massive effort to fund renewable energy - something akin to the Apollo program that put a man on the moon in the 1960s. Supporters are calling for the government to boost funding from about $4 billion a year now to $30 billion a year - every year for the next few decades.

• The Truth About Offshore Drilling The truth about offshore drilling, with David Kirsch, of PFC Energy, and Matt Simmons, Simmons & Co. International

Forget the Planet, Retrofit the Earth Looking at images of nearly all Iowa underwater got me thinking about the difference in politics between fixing the here-and-now and fantasizing about the future. One began to suspect our public officials might be drifting toward the clouds when many started referring to Earth as "the planet." Democrats especially of a certain environmental stripe talk only about "the planet." Of late, one might ask: Which planet are they living on? The Earth is about the here-and-now. The Planet is about the out-there. This week John McCain sounded like an Earth guy and Barack Obama like a Planet man. When Sen. McCain said he wanted to open drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf, he was talking about the here-and-now of $135 oil and $4 gasoline. When Sen. Obama in his own energy speech spoke of spending $150 billion over 10 years to create five million new "green energy jobs," he was talking about the out-there. When House and Senate Democrats last week said their "climate change" bill would collect $6.7 trillion from polluters over 40 years to save the planet, this too was public policy about the out-there.

Healthcare

Business Offers One Remedy for Health Care: Jane Bryant Quinn Chattering health-care policy wonks think we're at a ``tipping point.'' The employer-based health insurance system, they say, is going down. It costs too much, stops workers from moving to new jobs and leaves too many of us uninsured. That's all talk, says Paul Fronstin, director of health research for the Washington-based Employee Benefit Research Institute, which studies economic-security issues. It's just not happening. Employers see their benefit programs as a way of attracting and keeping better workers. They also are doubtful about the alternative -- a government-run, Medicare-ish program whose costs and benefits they can't control. Although companies want to keep their hand in, they consider the current system unsustainable, Fronstin says. They also know that tinkering won't change the picture. Instead, today's corporate chieftains are backing some surprising, fundamental changes. They've floated their ideas in a proposal called the New Benefit Platform for Life Security, developed by the ERISA Industry Committee, or ERIC. The committee represents the nation's major employers. ERISA is the federal law that regulates employee benefits. ERIC thinks health care should be delivered through large, third-party benefit administrators, all of them competing for the business. A government-authorized entity would design three to five standard health plans, with input from all the stakeholders (medical, consumer, insurer, employer and regulator). Employers would have the option of keeping their current plan or -- as ERIC expects -- contracting for coverage through the new system.

Bernanke: Rising Health Costs Pose Economic Risk Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Monday that rising U.S. government spending on health care risks triggering runaway budget deficits that could put economic stability in danger. "There are limits to how big the deficit and the debt can be," he said in response to questions after a speech to a health-care event organized by the Senate Finance Committee. "Soon it will begin to have effects on interest rates, it will have effects on economic growth, and on stability, so ... it's not just balancing the federal budget, it's really a much broader question of the stability and strength of our economy over a longer period of time," Bernanke said. Health-care spending is the largest single component of personal consumption and currently exceeds 15 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, Bernanke said. There is little evidence health-care spending will stop rising as a share of GDP, he added. To buffer the effects of rising health-care costs on household budgets, the government may have to absorb an increasingly large share of the bill for those costs, he said. This will put "even greater pressure on government budgets than official projections suggest," he added. Current government spending on the two major health care programs -- Medicare for retirees and Medicaid for low-income people -- takes up 23 percent of federal spending that is not for interest payments, up from 6 percent in 1975, Bernanke said. Due to higher costs and the aging of the U.S. population, that portion is scheduled to rise to about 35 percent in 2025 if no changes are made, he added.

Study: Health Costs to Rise Nearly 10 Percent Employer health care costs are poised to rise almost 10 percent in 2008 -- more than double the annual inflation rate -- and nearly that much again in 2009, according to an industry report released Tuesday. The study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers predicts that medical costs will increase 9.9 percent in 2008 and an additional 9.6 percent in 2009. The report identified two factors driving the increase: --A hospital building boom, as hospitals replace facilities and add private rooms and centers for outpatient treatment. --An increase in the expenses those with insurance are paying for those without. Cost-shifting from the uninsured, Medicare and Medicaid will account for nearly one in every five dollars spent by private insurers in 2009, according to the study, as the federal government underfunds public insurance programs and the number of people with private insurance continues to decrease. One of the things employers are doing in response is increasing wellness, prevention and disease management programs, which they say not only keeps employees healthy but also raises productivity.

• Fixing Healthcare in America A plan to improve healthcare, with John Hammergren, McKesson chairman/CEO.

Education 

Readings(Education): the Single Most Important Domestic Policy Issue

U.S. Schools: Passing or Failing? Discussing America's educational system, as compared to that of China and India, with Jay Mathews, an education reporter for the Washington Post, and Bob Compton, executive producer of the documentary "Two Million Minutes.

The Swedish model A Swedish firm has worked out how to make money running free schools. BIG-STATE, social-democratic Sweden seems an odd place to look for a free-market revolution. Yet that is what is under way in the country's schools. Reforms that came into force in 1994 allow pretty much anyone who satisfies basic standards to open a new school and take in children at the state's expense. The local municipality must pay the school what it would have spent educating each child itself—a sum of SKr48,000-70,000 ($8,000-12,000) a year, depending on the child's age and the school's location. Children must be admitted on a first-come, first-served basis—there must be no religious requirements or entrance exams. Nothing extra can be charged for, but making a profit is fine.The reforms were controversial, especially within the Social Democratic Party, then in one of its rare spells in opposition. They would have been even more controversial had it been realised just how popular they would prove. In just 14 years the share of Swedish children educated privately has risen from a fraction of a percent to more than 10%.The biggest, Kunskapsskolan (“Knowledge Schools”) opened its first six schools in 2000. Four more opened last autumn, bringing the total to 30. It now has 700 employees and teaches nearly 10,000 pupils, with an operating profit of SKr62m last year on a turnover of SKr655m.Like IKEA, a giant Swedish furniture-maker, Kunskapsskolan gets its customers to do much of the work themselves. The vital tool, though, is not an Allen key but the Kunskapsporten (“Knowledge Portal”), a website containing the entire syllabus. Youngsters spend 15 minutes each week with a tutor, reviewing the past week's progress and agreeing on goals and a timetable for the next one. This will include classes and lectures, but also a great deal of independent or small-group study. The Kunskapsporten allows each student to work at his own level, and spend less or more time on each subject, depending on his strengths and weakness. Each subject is divided into 35 steps. Students who reach step 25 graduate with a pass; those who make it to step 30 or 35 gain, respectively, a merit or distinction.

Defense & Security

• National Security(Readings): Let the Debate Begin

• The Iran Dilemma: They Like Us, Not; We Like Them, Not...usw.
  

LEADERSHIP: The Pentagon Gets Ready For President Obama:  U.S. military planners are working on how to deal with another round of major cutbacks, in terms of budgets and manpower. This is because one of the major candidates for Commander-in-Chief (president of the United States), Barak Obama, has a video in circulation, of a short speech he gave earlier this year, about how he planned on handling the Department of Defense. His major points were; "I'm the only major candidate who opposed this war from the beginning; and as president, I will end it. "Second, I will cut tens of billions of dollars in wasteful spending. I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems. I will not weaponize space. I will slow our development of future combat systems. "I will institute an independent defense priorities board to ensure that the Quadrennial Review is not used to justify unnecessary defense spending. "Third, I will set a goal for a world without nuclear weapons. To seek that goal, I will not develop nuclear weapons; I will seek a global ban on the production of fissile material; and I will negotiate with Russia to take our ICBMs off hair-trigger alert, and to achieve deep cuts in our nuclear arsenal." There were major cuts when the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, and when Bill Clinton won the presidency. The same drill is expected if Obama wins, and military planners are studying ways they better cope with a new round of cuts. Obama's speech can be found on YouTube.

U.S. Marines 7, Smear Artists Of Haditha 0 Yet another U.S. Marine, Lt. Col. Jeffrey Chessani, had charges dropped Tuesday in the so-called Haditha massacre — bringing the total number of Marines who've been cleared or won case dismissals in the Iraq War incident to seven. "Undue command influence" on the prosecution led to the outcome in Chessani's case. Bottom line: That's zero for seven for military prosecutors, with one trial left to go. I repeat: Haditha prosecution goes 0-7. But you won't see that headline in the same Armageddon-sized font the New York Times used repeatedly when the story first broke. The Times, Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., and the rest of the anti-war drum-pounders who fueled the smear campaign against the troops two years ago should hang their heads in shame. They won't, of course. Perpetuating the "cold-blooded Marines" narrative means never having to say you're sorry. It means never having to look Lt. Col. Chessani (charges dismissed), Lt. Andrew Grayson (acquitted), Lance Cpl. Stephen Tatum (charges dismissed), Capt. Lucas McConnell (charges dismissed), Lance Cpl. Justin Sharratt (charges dismissed), Sgt. Sanick Dela Cruz (charges dismissed), Sgt. Frank Wuterich (awaiting trial) and their families in the eyes and apologize for the pre-emptive character assassination they all faced at the hands of the hyperventilating, noose-hanging press. Murtha and company applied Queen of Hearts ("Off with their heads!") treatment to our own men and women in uniform while giving more benefit of the doubt to foreign terror suspects at Gitmo. It is worth recalling, because the press won't do it for you, what they concluded about the now-crumbling Haditha case in the summer of 2006, before a single formal charge had been filed:

• The Lie Mutually Agreed Upon