Parts to Wholes: the Socionomic Systems Nexus

The Change Gamble ?

Their Turn: Whose President Is He Anyway? Reconciling all those different impressions of who Mr. Obama is and what he stands for may prove as defining a challenge as fixing the economy. Whose president is he? The standard line from his advisers would naturally be that he’s the president of all Americans. But it rarely works out that simply. Ultimately, the gauzy picture of the campaign trail sharpens in the act of governing. Ultimately, choices are made and illusions shattered. And so many of Mr. Obama’s supporters invested so much passion in him that the potential for let-down seems considerable. The president-elect’s first few actions and statements since the election have provided some initial clues that are already being scrutinized for larger meaning. His first appointment, for instance, was to make his friend Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois his White House chief of staff. Some critics saw that as a betrayal of Mr. Obama’s campaign pledge to foster a “new politics” reaching across the aisle in Washington since Mr. Emanuel is such a skilled specialist in the razor-edged old politics of slicing up the opposition. But others saw ideological significance in the fact that Mr. Emanuel has been an advocate for more centrist policies when it comes to issues like trade, crime and welfare.
Declarations: America Throws Long – Peggy Noonan

Staffing and Transition

Old Hands Meld Continuity, Change Three chiefs of staff -- former, current and future -- will be on the front lines of one of the most sensitive presidential transitions in modern times. The public face of the transition was on display Monday, when Mr. Obama visited the White House, shook hands with Mr. Bush and sat down in the Oval Office he soon will occupy. That the transition is, by all accounts, going smoothly and intelligently so far owes much to these two leaders, of course. Mr. Bush has chosen to rise above months of campaign-trail bashing of him and ensure that his administration provides a smooth and thorough handoff to Team Obama. His performance will serve as a model for future outgoing presidents. Mr. Obama, in turn, has shown the kind of presidential demeanor that helped him to a comfortable victory, and has been careful to say the one essential thing: The U.S. has only one president at a time, and that remains Mr. Bush. But much of the task of transferring power during the 70 days until Mr. Obama's inauguration will fall on the shoulders of this staff troika -- Messrs. Emanuel, Podesta and Bolten -- that will be on the front lines every day. They form an intriguing group, Washington veterans all, with careers that have quietly crossed paths in ways that leave them well-suited to the assignment history has dealt them. The one who has attracted the most attention so far is Rep. Emanuel, who has the most public face of the three. He was a White House aide to former President Bill Clinton who subsequently went into the banking sector, won a seat in Congress, and led the Democrats' House campaign committee when the party took control of Congress in 2006. He since has been the hard-charging, sharp-tongued head of the Democratic caucus in the House. Because of Rep. Emanuel's elbows-out style, much of the instant analysis of his selection has suggested that the Obama White House will have a partisan tone. But that misses the more subtle signal his choice emits. He comes from the ideological center of the Democratic Party, not its left wing, and some of the issues on which he worked most diligently in the Clinton White House -- crime legislation, welfare reform, trade agreements -- were most important to moderate and conservative Democrats and required cooperation with Republicans.

Discussions With Clintons as Obama Creates Team The discussions came as Mr. Obama moved forward in putting together the team he will bring to office in January. Mr. Obama has decided to nominate Tom Daschle, the former Senate Democratic leader, as secretary of health and human services, Mr. Obama’s advisers said Wednesday. Mr. Daschle has accepted the offer, which would make him a point man in Mr. Obama’s ambitious plan to expand health care coverage. Although Mr. Daschle’s nomination will not be officially announced for a while, the transition team did make public several expected White House appointments on Wednesday. They included David Axelrod, who was Mr. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and now will serve as senior adviser to the president, and Gregory B. Craig, who was Mr. Clinton’s impeachment defense lawyer and now will serve as White House counsel. Two other leading contenders for cabinet positions emerged late Wednesday, Democrats with knowledge of the process said. Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona was poised to be offered the position of homeland security secretary, and Penny Pritzker, a Chicago businesswoman and national finance chairman of the Obama campaign, was in the final stages of vetting for commerce secretary.

'Do What You Got Elected to Do' Recently, I spoke with Mr. Emanuel during a short layover at the Detroit airport. Officially, he hadn't yet been offered the new post, and when queried about the prospect of serving in the Obama White House he demurred. But Mr. Emanuel, who turns 49 later this month, was eager to discuss Congress's agenda going forward. He explained how Democrats can avoid the mistakes that felled the Republican majority, and he reflected on the lessons learned as a high-ranking member of President Clinton's brain trust in the 1990s. Asked what Barack Obama was elected to do, and what legislation he's likely to find on his Oval Office desk soonest, Mr. Emanuel didn't hesitate. "Bucket one would have children's health care, Schip," he said. "It has bipartisan agreement in the House and Senate. It's something President-elect Obama expects to see. Second would be [ending current restrictions on federally funded] stem-cell research. And third would be an economic recovery package focused on the two principles of job creation and tax relief for middle-class families."

Intelligence Policy to Stay Mostly Intact President-elect Barack Obama is unlikely to radically overhaul controversial Bush administration intelligence policies, advisers say, an approach that is almost certain to create tension within the Democratic Party. Civil-liberties groups were among those outraged that the White House sanctioned the use of harsh intelligence techniques -- which some consider torture -- by the Central Intelligence Agency, and expanded domestic spy powers. These groups are demanding quick action to reverse these policies. Mr. Obama is being advised largely by a group of intelligence professionals, including some who have supported Republicans, and centrist former officials in the Clinton administration. They say he is likely to fill key intelligence posts with pragmatists. "He's going to take a very centrist approach to these issues," said Roger Cressey, a former counterterrorism official in the Clinton and Bush administrations. "Whenever an administration swings too far on the spectrum left or right, we end up getting ourselves in big trouble." The intelligence-transition team is led by former National Counterterrorism Center chief John Brennan and former CIA intelligence-analysis director Jami Miscik, say officials close to the matter. Mr. Brennan is viewed as a potential candidate for a top intelligence post. Ms. Miscik left amid a slew of departures from the CIA under then-Director Porter Goss. Advisers caution that few decisions will be made until the team gets a better picture of how the Bush administration actually goes about gathering intelligence, including covert programs, and there could be a greater shift after a full review. The Obama team plans to review secret and public executive orders and recent Justice Department guidelines that eased restrictions on domestic intelligence collection. The early transition effort is winning praise from moderate Democrats. "He's surrounded himself with excellent people -- an excellent bipartisan group," said Rep. Jane Harman, a California Democrat who is chairwoman of the House homeland-security subcommittee on intelligence. Most of those being discussed as candidates for director of national intelligence and director of the CIA have staked out a middle ground between safeguarding civil liberties and aggressively pursuing nontraditional adversaries. Mr. Brennan is a leading contender for one of the two jobs, say some advisers. He declined to comment on personnel matters. Gen. James L. Jones, a former North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander; Thomas Fingar, the chief of analysis for the intelligence director; Joan A. Dempsey, who served in top intelligence and Pentagon posts; former Rep. Tim Roemer of Indiana, who served on the 9/11 Commission; and Ms. Harman have also been mentioned. Ms. Harman has also been cited as a potential secretary of homeland security.Obama Leans Toward Asking Gates to Stay

Clinton Set for Secretary of State; Obama Narrows Security Adviser Choices Senator Hillary Clinton’s discussions about becoming Barack Obama’s secretary of state were “on track,” a spokesman said, as the president-elect narrowed his choices for White House national security adviser. Retired Marine General James Jones and James Steinberg, a former White House and State Department aide, have emerged as top candidates for the national security adviser post, according to people familiar with the selection process. Obama also is considering New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as Commerce Department secretary, according to a Democratic aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Clinton’s selection as secretary of state nominee is likely to be formally announced after the Nov. 27 U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, according to the Obama aide. Clinton would be Obama’s highest-ranking Cabinet officer -- the secretary of state is fourth in the line of presidential succession. Backers say the popularity of both Hillary and Bill Clinton overseas would be a boon to the U.S.’s global reputation. Obama also is assembling his national security team. Jones, 64, served as supreme commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from 2002 to 2006 and commandant of the Marine Corps from 1999 to 2002. After leaving the NATO post, he was named last year as special U.S. envoy to the Middle East.

Geithner Chosen to Be Treasury Secretary; Summers to Serve in White House President-elect Barack Obama picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, with Lawrence Summers getting a senior White House role, a Democratic aide said. Summers, former President Bill Clinton’s last Treasury chief, would be positioned to succeed Ben S. Bernanke as Fed chairman in 2010. Obama is likely to announce his economic team on Nov. 24, the aide said on condition of anonymity. Geithner is a veteran who has helped lead the effort to end the deepest financial crisis in seven decades and at the same time has spent most of his career outside the public eye. The top task of the new team will be assembling Obama’s pledged stimulus package to buttress an economy that may be in its worst recession in a quarter century. Obama is assembling “very strong people, very qualified people,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York. “But the reality of the problems of the economy, the financial markets, our banking system both domestically and globally, and the long list of problems we have to deal with as a society, that is very daunting.”

Summers to Join Obama White House as Spending Advocate, Candidate for Fed Harvard University professor Lawrence Summers will join the Obama administration with a ready-made sales pitch for substantial economic stimulus and a chance that the role springboards him to the Federal Reserve. Summers, 53, was Bill Clinton's last Treasury secretary. He will have a wide-ranging portfolio and help craft Obama's economic policies, a Democratic aide said. Summers's appointment, along with the nomination of Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner to be the next Treasury secretary, will be announced Nov. 24, the aide said. The return of Summers to Washington after eight years at Harvard gives President-elect Barack Obama a fierce advocate for fiscal stimulus to revive the economy. It also positions him to succeed Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose term at the helm of the central bank expires in January 2010, said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Division of Monetary Affairs. Economic stimulus should be ``speedy, substantial and sustained over a several-year interval,'' Summers said in a panel discussion with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and former secretary Robert Rubin. Without saying how big a stimulus package was needed, Summers said each dollar of spending generates an extra $1.50 for the economy. ``We're going to need some impetus to the economy for two to three years,'' he said. ``It's particularly important that the fiscal stimulus be linked to the country's long-term priorities around infrastructure, around energy, particularly renewable energy, around health care.''

Assessments

Expertise Trumps Ideology in Obama's Early Picks After he waged a campaign built around a stirring message of change, many of President-elect Obama's supporters expected him to begin stocking his administration with passionate progressives bristling to challenge the status quo. Conservatives anticipated something akin to the second coming of the New Deal. Neither scenario has materialized. At the quarter point in the transition process, Obama has surrounded himself with a cadre of seasoned political operatives and Clinton administration veterans known more for their expertise than ideology. Beltway savvy and centrist policy chops have, so far, trumped partisanship. Some of this is to be expected, as Obama's team shifts from the frenetic pace of a presidential campaign to the more deliberate realm of governing. And remember that as a candidate, Obama portrayed himself as a new breed of politician capable of transcending traditional political fault lines. But the selection of so many centrist insiders has skeptics wondering whether the idealistic ex-community organizer is capable of backing up his promises to shake up Washington and promote a more activist government. The difficulty in pinning down the part of the political spectrum from which Obama will govern shows, experts say, that he is being careful not to repeat the mistakes former President Bill Clinton made during his 1992 transition. By building his administration from the inside out and focusing on filling key White House positions like the chief-of-staff, counsel and his senior advisers, he will have a brain trust that can help guide remaining personnel decisions, alert him to potential conflicts and even begin moving an agenda.

Clinton, in contrast, focused on selecting nominees for his Cabinet and filled out most of his White House staff at the last minute. That created a steep learning curve and the prospect for miscues, such as when Clinton nominated Zoe Baird to be his attorney general without knowing that her husband had employed undocumented workers. The ensuing embarrassing headlines dominated the news for more than a week, including on the day of Clinton's inauguration. Clinton ended up needing three tries to get the attorney general choice done right in 1993. Political scientists who study presidential transitions say the most obvious thing to be gleaned from Obama's selections is that he prizes trust and an individual's ability to deliver.

The Insider’s Crusade The next administration will be a valedictocracy rule by those who graduated first in their high school classes. If an enemy attacks the United States during a Harvard-Yale game, we’re in trouble. Already the culture of the Obama administration is coming into focus. Its members are twice as smart as the poor reporters who have to cover them, three times if you include the columnists. They typically served in the Clinton administration and then, like Cincinnatus, retreated to the comforts of private life — that is, if Cincinnatus had worked at Goldman Sachs, Williams & Connolly or the Brookings Institution. So many of them send their kids to Georgetown Day School, the posh leftish private school in D.C., that they’ll be able to hold White House staff meetings in the carpool line. And yet as much as I want to resent these overeducated Achievatrons (not to mention the incursion of a French-style government dominated by highly trained Enarchs), I find myself tremendously impressed by the Obama transition. The fact that they can already leak one big appointee per day is testimony to an awful lot of expert staff work. Unlike past Democratic administrations, they are not just handing out jobs to the hacks approved by the favored interest groups. They’re thinking holistically — there’s a nice balance of policy wonks, governors and legislators. They’re also thinking strategically. As Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute notes, it was smart to name Tom Daschle both the head of Health and Human Services and the health czar. Splitting those duties up, as Bill Clinton did, leads to all sorts of conflicts. Most of all, they are picking Washington insiders. Or to be more precise, they are picking the best of the Washington insiders. As a result, the team he has announced so far is more impressive than any other in recent memory. One may not agree with them on everything or even most things, but a few things are indisputably true. Finally, there are many people on this team with practical creativity. Any think tanker can come up with broad doctrines, but it is rare to find people who can give the president a list of concrete steps he can do day by day to advance American interests. Dennis Ross, who advised Obama during the campaign, is the best I’ve ever seen at this, but Rahm Emanuel also has this capacity, as does Craig and legislative liaison Phil Schiliro.