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July 12, 2009

McNamara's Legacies and Lessons: Beyond Simple Answers

Robert McNamara died at home in his sleep this last week, prompting widespread commentary and reflections. Perhaps the most thoughtful was on PBS's Newshour, at least IOHO. After the break you'll find some reflections and ruminations from a wide spectrum of observers, commentators and participants. Reading them and reflecting on the lessons ourselves we were, and are, struck by several things. First everyone sees things thru their own prism, naturally, but fails to some extent to broaden that prism to include the entire context. Second, McNamara's Legacy is widely held to be a failed strategy that led to a failed war; and beyond that, a legacy of distrust with government and divisions in society that persisted for years. It can be argued that in fact they persist until recently and we are only now beginning to move beyond them. Of course Mr. McNamara wasn't alone in making the decisions that so shaped and warped our public discourse, attitudes and culture for the last 30+ years but he was and is a bit of a lightening rod. History will reach its own conclusions in the fullness of time but the damage created and the difficulties in re-bounding seem to be clear. Nor is Vietnam the sole legacy of the '60s from legislation to civil changes, many of which suffered similar fates for similar reasons; and for which we are only now beginning to come to terms with and respond adequately to !

So what are those legacies ? We'll work thru that but we'll suggest (assert) three major ones for you to think about. 1) It is fundamentally necessary to understand how things work in context and not impose simple models on a complex universe. 2) It is equally necessary to adapt your understanding to new learnings and change your strategies and actions accordingly. 3) The core requirement of a public servant is to have the moral courage to admit when things aren't working and take responsibility for finding alternatives. In other words see the world as it is, not as you fantasy it and then adapt yourself to reality to achieve your goals. And have the courage, discipline, persistence and old fashioned gumption to stick with it long enough to reach a conclusion.

Ugly Americans, Real Lessons of 'Nam and Responses

The majority of the commentators (though not the PBS guests who were biographers) failed to assess McNamara and American policy in the context of the times. Retrospective criticisms are all well and good as well as fun and entertaining but they can't be taken seriously. Decision-makers have to act with situations as they are, with the tools they have and the information available, not operate in some ideal and theoretical world where infinite time and resources are available. So before we judge Caesar let us properly bury him by making the real record clearer. In the readings we've collected a reading list on Vietnam per se and on the history and context, e.g. John Lewis Gaddis' short history of the Cold, which underpins this section. We've also collected a set of Rose interviews on 'Nam, Somalia/Balkans and Iraq that trace the arc of American institutional response to these sorts of crisis and challenges.

Continued...

1. Cold War - we went into Vietnam at the height of the Cold War which, despite revisionist popular history was both a real war and not something we were guaranteed to win. Remember that not only were the leaders veterans of WW2 but had watched the Soviet Union almost take over Western Europe after conquering Eastern Europe, the success of the Communists in China, the attack on Greece, support for civil wars and rebellions in Latin America and Africa and massive worldwide efforts to undermine the West. Bottomline: this was the real deal and a real concern. It's not at all clear that the Domino Theory would not, in fact, have worked out as Eisenhower envisioned it without our intervention.

2. Nuclear War - this was a real, continuing threat that was as serious as it's possible to get. The #1 foreign policy objective of the US was to prevent an local conflict from escalating into total war. A risk that didn't move on to a move tractable path until Kissinger and Nixon's Detente.

3. Civil/Military Relations - the movie Thirteen Days gets it exactly right. The Chiefs of Staff were all WW2 combat veterans. In fact at this time they included, or had recently, Gen. Curtis "Bomber" Lemay and Adm. Arleigh "31-kt" Burke. During the Cuban Crisis these guys wanted to go full bore (cf. #1) and were intransigent in their advocacies. On top of which the DoD was a collection of feudal fiefdoms, large, cumbersome and inefficient. Both of which problems McNamara was brought in to fix but the attack on which led to the unwillingness of inability of the Military to "speak truth to power". Which was perhaps the single greatest failing institutionally after the original policy and strategic failures.

4. Operational Execution - there were three, perhaps four, prongs (or as the military now calls them) operational dimensions, to the Vietnam effort. Conventional military operations, unconventional operations, nation-building and civil affairs and socio-political development. Other than the first the other three, which were arguably both essential and more important, were under-emphasized and resourced. Despite participants and commentators at the time knowing better. Even on the great strength of US forces, conventional operations, we pursued a "heavy" approach instead of a more infantry and light, agile approach (cf. David Hackworth's books especially). Yet when more agile infantry tactics were put in place by skilled leaders with the right skills and experienced they worked and worked well. These problems were made worse by several orders of magnitude by careerism on the part of the command hierarchy, officer rotation policies (ticket-punching) and limited tours, which ensured that unit cohesion was poor, the troops ill-trained and ill-led and morale damaged and almost destroyed (cf. fragging; as an NJROTIC student and CO my unit visited a naval base in the mid-'70s and had beer bottles thrown at us on the public streets. We almost had a riot between the sailors and the unit).

5. Forlorn Hope - the conventional wisdom now is that not only was Vietnam unwinnable but it was never feasible or workable nor worth the effort required to fail. In addition to all the other failures of leadership, moral courage and political will the final straw was when, in a fit of political correctness and moral picque, the US Congress cut off all funding to South Vietnam. Up until that point Vietnamization was working, the South Vietnamese were holding their own and there was a clear but difficult chance to make things work. But when you design an armed force that requires fuel, ammo, intelligence and air support and completely cut it off it should come as no surprise that it fails. In other words we completely abandoned our allies and failed to honor our commitments (cf. Czech Uprising:1956, Prague Spring:1968, Somalia:1993, and Shia Uprising: Iraq 1991).

6. Reverberations (?): After all that it's not clear that it in fact didn't work. By essentially fighting a holding action while regimes changed in Russia and China, monolithic relationships broke up and the workability of the Communist system in the long-term was tested the sacrifices made by our forces on the ground - despite all we did to screw it up - probably bought us enough time to win the Cold War. Though certainly not the only or even prime cause Vietnam was a major component.

Lessons Learned: a Long Time Coming

If you look a the arc of US foreign and national security policy from Vietnam thru the '80s and '90s adaptaion and response was a very long, hard time coming. If you look at US society the same can be said. In fact we never came to term with the legacies of Vietnam and how to learn from them and adapt ourselves in a mature and responsible way. Instead in places like Somalia and upto and including the current Iraq War from 2004-2006 we basically repeated them. It was at the end of 2006 if you'll recall that a blue ribbon panel put together a series of recommendations essentially calling for us to cut and run again, though they sugar coated it. Yet somehow or another the military, who had gone into the fight with the wrong capabilities, managed to re-invent all the discarded lessons of counter-insurgency and nation-building while adapting it's conventional forces, tactics and strategies into a cohesive framework that reversed that trend. And did so with little or no support form Washington and the country with the single and exemplary exception of the President. Yet, as the graphic shows, a complex, difficult and highly skilled strategy was developed, put in place and effectively executed. And it has been effective and successful to date.

Yet the military is not the only institution that failed to learn the lessons of hubris and mal-adaptation that should have been taken from the '60s and '70s. Without going into great detail the last few weeks have seen the bankruptcy filings of both Crysler and GM for example (Detroitosaurus: Iconic Death vs. World Industry Futures ). Resilience and adapation will be the sine qua non of the next decades in all spheres, whether it's business, the civil or public policy. Right now we're in the midst of an economic crisis yet at the same time the administration is tackling the issues of Healthcare, Energy and Education that have been known, neglected and ignored for three decades. Our poor ability to respond under adaptive pressures in Vietnam is just one of many major examples of inabilities and unwillingness to change. But we've come to the point where the alternatives are stark and the consequences much clearer. We may not exactly know how to fix these things perfectly but we are moving forcefully with the best we know how to do to deal with issues too long neglect.

Principles for the Future

Like we said there are not simple answers to complex questions and you need to make courageous strategic decisions but also balance that with learning and change as you go. 

And if there's one fundamental lesson to be learned from McNamara it's this: you have to have the moral courage not just to admit you're wrong. You've got to do better than that and figure out how to stay in the game and get it right. Mea culpa's don't count. Performance does.

 

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Legacies and Reflections

Robert McNamara Dies: No Escape from Vietnam At the beginning of his professional career, he made a name for himself as the wunderkind who reformed the ailing Ford Motor Co. At the end, he tried to rehabilitate his reputation, as a do-gooder striving to save the globe's poorer nations as head of the World Bank. But Robert McNamara, who died early Monday morning in his sleep at home at the age of 93 (his wife Diana told the Associated Press he had been in failing health for some time), will always be best known for his role as the architect of Washington's failed Vietnam policy in the 1960s. McNamara waited 30 years before conceding in his 1995 memoir, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam, that he had waged the war in error. "My voice would have had no impact at all at that point," he told TIME when the book came out, explaining why he hadn't revealed his doubts when he stepped down as Secretary of Defense in early 1968. "My voice would have had no impact whatsoever." But to the baby boomers who came of age during the Vietnam War, McNamara's actions at the time spoke louder than the words of contrition he would utter three decades after 58,000 Americans had lost their lives in Vietnam. In their youth, they referred to the Vietnam conflict as "McNamara's war." But the publication of the 1995 memoir revived the debate over his role in the war. McNamara admitted in his book that the U.S. government had never answered key questions that drove its war policy, such as whether the fall of Vietnam would lead to a communist Southeast Asia and if such an occurrence would really have posed a grave threat to the West. "It seems beyond understanding, incredible, that we did not force ourselves to confront such issues head-on," he wrote. He said he wanted to help prevent the country from making similar mistakes in the future and that he fretted that just as Washington misperceived Vietnam a generation ago, it remained in danger of making a similar mistake. "We ought to learn the history of the Muslim religion," he told TIME in 1995. "Most Americans don't know the difference between the Sunnis and the Shi'ites, but we need to know that because that's going to be a major issue in the world of the future."

A Complicated Legacy What a sense of possibility McNamara conveyed in those first years -- the audacity, not of hope but of reason. He came to Washington as the ultimate rationalist, believing that he could transform the bureaucratic morass of the Defense Department into something modern and efficient. He gathered his "whiz kids," bright young aides like my father, and encouraged them to challenge outmoded practices, politics be damned. And he backed them all the way. The military never really forgave McNamara for that determination to apply modern management techniques to the nation's defense. The generals and admirals didn't want to be rationalized; they had built a mighty machine to battle the Soviet Union, and they resented McNamara's attempt to impose change. Then came Vietnam, the war that will forever be attached to McNamara's name. Vietnam shattered the rationalist's faith: During the Vietnam years, the fathers in McNamara's Pentagon would come home at night as if dragging an immense weight. These were men who had never known failure, yet somehow, they were stumped by this war. Watching these charmed and brilliant people struggling with Vietnam was haunting. It was as if a magnificent sports car had hit a wall at high speed. You couldn't tell, at first, how severe the damage was. McNamara's legacy is complicated for me. In my adolescent years, I thought the question was simple -- the Vietnam War had been wrong, and I joined the protest marches demanding an end to it. But over time, and seeing my own errors of judgment, I have found another lesson: Be careful of the certainties that McNamara conveyed; be wary of the notion that smart people can solve any problem if they just try hard enough. Nobody gets to do over his mistakes, least of all Robert McNamara. But perhaps the memory of this brilliant and tragic man will keep us from being too certain of our own judgment -- and encourage us to consider, even when we feel most confident, the possibility that we could be wrong.

McNamara, In Retrospect In 1961 at the start of the Kennedy administration, I went to work for Defense Secretary Robert McNamara. Just as FDR attracted a small army of bright young lawyers and domestic policymakers to his New Deal in 1932, McNamara (who had insisted as a condition of taking the Pentagon job that President Kennedy give him authority to make all appointments in the department) recruited an energetic young team to wrestle with the Pentagon behemoth. The press quickly dubbed the group McNamara's "whiz kids." I was proud to be among them, but to the top military brass, "whiz kids" was a term of disdain. McNamara was determined to control a fractious department that no secretary had yet mastered. When I arrived as a young lawyer, Cy Vance told me, "Bob intends to reorganize the Pentagon from top to bottom. Your job is to find legal authority for whatever he wants to do." Known for his extraordinary intelligence, McNamara was also a shrewd political manager. From day one, all White House requests had to go through his office. When he set deadlines for comments on his reorganization proposals, he never extended them. To set the stage for consolidating procurement of common items in a Defense Supply Agency, in order to strengthen the department's bargaining power, he had me hang on peg boards in his conference room all the hats, belts, shirts, ties, underwear and even toilet seats of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps as a backdrop for his meeting with the service chiefs. After a few seconds of embarrassment, everyone knew that the Defense Supply Agency would be established. I watched the war consume Bob McNamara. From being the most hawkish adviser, McNamara gradually changed; in the fall of 1967 he went public with his doubts about the effectiveness of bombing in Southeast Asia. By that time I was working in the White House, and President Lyndon Johnson told me, "That man can't take this pressure of the war. I've got to make Vietnam my war, not McNamara's. I need him functioning." In late 1967, after a Cabinet meeting, Bob stopped by my office and said, "I may be recommended to head the World Bank. If so, don't tell the president I'm indispensable." In early 1968, I got a call from journalist Robert Novak. "The Financial Times says McNamara is being considered for the World Bank. Anything to it?" I fudged an answer and called Bob. "Tell the president I'm on the way over to see him," he said. That day McNamara and the president holed up in the Oval Office until late afternoon, when they issued an exchange of resignation letters. "To this day," Bob told me a few months ago, over the last dinner I had with him and his wife, Diana Masieri, "I don't know whether I quit or was fired."

Lessons and History

Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam The Vietnam War that I saw, first from my seat in Congress and then as secretary of defense, cannot be wrapped in a tidy package and tagged "bad idea." It was far more complex than that: a mixture of good and evil from which there are many valuable lessons to be learned. Yet the only lesson that seems to have endured is the one that begins and ends with "Don't go there." The war in Iraq is not "another Vietnam." But it could become one if we continue to use Vietnam as a sound bite while ignoring its true lessons. Today, we deserve a view of history that is based on facts rather than emotional distortions and the party line of tired politicians who play on emotions. Mine is not a rosy view of the Vietnam War. I didn't miss the fact that it was an ugly, mismanaged, tragic episode in U.S. history, with devastating loss of life for all sides. But there are those in our nation who would prefer to pick at that scab rather than let it heal. They wait for opportunities to trot out the Vietnam demons whenever another armed intervention is threatened. For them, Vietnam is an insurance policy that pretends to guarantee peace at home as long as we never again venture abroad. Certain misconceptions about that conflict, therefore, need to be exposed and abandoned in order to restore confidence in the United States' nation-building ability. The truth about Vietnam that revisionist historians conveniently forget is that the United States had not lost when we withdrew in 1973. In fact, we grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory two years later when Congress cut off the funding for South Vietnam that had allowed it to continue to fight on its own. Over the four years of Nixon's first term, I had cautiously engineered the withdrawal of the majority of our forces while building up South Vietnam's ability to defend itself. My colleague and friend Henry Kissinger, meanwhile, had negotiated a viable agreement between North and South Vietnam, which was signed in January 1973. It allowed for the United States to withdraw completely its few remaining troops and for the United States and the Soviet Union to continue funding their respective allies in the war at a specified level. Each superpower was permitted to pay for replacement arms and equipment. Documents released from North Vietnamese historical files in recent years have proved that the Soviets violated the treaty from the moment the ink was dry, continuing to send more than $1 billion a year to Hanoi. The United States barely stuck to the allowed amount of military aid for two years, and that was a mere fraction of the Soviet contribution. Yet during those two years, South Vietnam held its own courageously and respectably against a better-bankrolled enemy. Peace talks continued between the North and the South until the day in 1975 when Congress cut off U.S. funding. The Communists walked out of the talks and never returned. Without U.S. funding, South Vietnam was quickly overrun. We saved a mere $297 million a year and in the process doomed South Vietnam, which had been ably fighting the war without our troops since 1973. I believed then and still believe today that given enough outside resources, South Vietnam was capable of defending itself, just as I believe Iraq can do the same now. From the Tet offensive in 1968 up to the fall of Saigon in 1975, South Vietnam never lost a major battle. The Tet offensive itself was a victory for South Vietnam and devastated the North Vietnamese army, which lost 289,000 men in 1968 alone. Yet the overriding media portrayal of the Tet offensive and the war thereafter was that of defeat for the United States and the Saigon government. Just so, the overriding media portrayal of the Iraq war is one of failure and futility.

Calculus and Compassion Who was the most compassionate member of the cabinet? I guessed, rather unconfidently. Wrong. I guessed again, wrongly. He laughed and said: “You’ll never get it. It’s Bob McNamara. By far.” And it was a surprise, because we all thought of Bob McNamara as the no-nonsense numbers man from corporate America. The steel-rimmed glasses and the steel-trap mind were perfectly suited to an industrial mentality. Robert McNamara went to the Pentagon to reform it, to rationalize its decision-making and systematize analysis. From the outset he was unpopular with many high-ranking officers who were more comfortable with the institutionalized cross-purposes of the defense establishment and the educated intuition of experienced military personnel. Of course, Mr. McNamara was right, and it was in part his confidence in this sensible effort at reform that blinded him to the need for a change in strategy in Southeast Asia. He was used to hearing mindless criticism and became wedded to relying on those analytic methods that were superior to the ones he found at the Pentagon, not quite appreciating their limited utility in Vietnam. Unfortunately, just as he was trying to liquidate the bureaucratic practices that governed the Army in the first half of the 20th-century, he found himself in the midst of a sudden shift away from the strategic context that had structured American warfare since the Civil War. The “total warfare” of the industrial state, at which Bob McNamara excelled, was no longer either acceptable or effective. He was not the only one to miss the need for this kind of change, a change in the war aim rather than simply its practices. Strategic planning is an extrapolation from the past and, in Southeast Asia, the United States confronted warfare for which its past provided no guidance; Mr. McNamara’s obsession with quantitative planning tended to make matters worse: though we killed more and more of the enemy, we were never able to protect civilians adequately.

The McNamara Mentality The death of Robert McNamara at 93 was less a faint reverberation of a receding era than a reminder that mentalities are the defining attributes of eras, and certain American mentalities recur with, it sometimes seems, metronomic regularity. McNamara came to Washington from a robust Detroit -- he headed Ford when America's swaggering automobile manufacturers enjoyed 90 percent market share -- to be President John Kennedy's secretary of defense. Seemingly confident that managing the competition of nations could be as orderly as managing competition among the three members of Detroit's oligopoly, McNamara entered government seven months before the birth of the current president, who is the owner and, he is serenely sure, fixer of General Motors. Today, something unsettlingly similar to McNamara's eerie assuredness pervades the Washington in which he died. The spirit is: Have confidence, everybody, because we have, or soon will have, everything -- really everything -- under control. The apogee of McNamara's professional life, in the first half of the 1960s, coincided, not coincidentally, with the apogee of the belief that behavioralism had finally made possible a science of politics. Behavioralism held -- holds; it is a hardy perennial -- that the social and natural sciences are not so different, both being devoted to the discovery of law-like regularities that govern the behavior of atoms, hamsters, humans, whatever. Two of behavioralism's reinforcing assumptions were: Things that can be quantified can be controlled. And everything can be quantified. So, pick a problem, any problem. Military insurgency in Indochina? The answer is counterinsurgency. What can be, and hence must be, quantified? Body counts, surely. Bingo: a metric of success.

Modern Implications

Still ‘Ugly’ After All These Years In the annals of misunderstood titles, a special place belongs to William J. Lederer and Eugene Burdick’s novel “The Ugly American.” Today, the phrase is shorthand for our compatriots who wear tube tops to the Vatican or shout for Big Macs in Beijing. But as summer vacation season begins (at least for those who can still afford it), it’s worth recalling that the impolitic travelers in “The Ugly American” aren’t drunken backpackers or seniors sporting black socks, but the so-called educated elite of the diplomatic corps, whose insensitivity to local language and customs prompts observations like this: “The simple fact is, Mr. Ambassador, that average Americans, in their natural state, if you will excuse the phrase, are the best ambassadors a country can have,” a Filipino minister tells an American official. “They are not suspicious, they are eager to share their skills, they are generous. But something happens to most Americans when they go abroad. Many of them are not average . . . they are second-raters.” But the book’s most enduring legacy is its argument that “we spend billions on the wrong aid projects while overlooking the almost costless and far more helpful ones,” which could serve as an unwieldy subtitle to the books of Rory Stewart, who chronicled his solo walk across war-torn Afghanistan in “The Places in Between” and described his year as a deputy provincial governor in Iraq under the British administration in “The Prince of the Marshes.” Stewart criticizes well-meaning Western policy makers who arrive in country with notions of “capacity building” and “democratization” but little local knowledge and even less patience. “Many people don’t want to sit with a village leader in a tent and eat with their hands,” Stewart said by phone from Cambridge, Mass., where he is the director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School. “It’s much easier to announce an initiative to ‘stabilize Afghanistan.’ There’s a lack of realism.”  A half century after “The Ugly American,” the United States has another young president urging us to connect with the wider world, only this time he has lived in it. “I know that the stereotypes of the United States are out there,” Barack Obama recently told university students in Istanbul. “And I know that many of them are informed not by direct exchange or dialogue, but by television shows and movies and misinformation.” Lederer and Burdick would most likely respond that no matter how cosmopolitan a superpower’s leadership, foreign opinion is also informed by its actions, or lack thereof. Obama’s 2010 budget proposes increasing the Peace Corps’s financing by 10 percent, to $373 million, though that will not come close to covering his proposal to double the number of volunteers to roughly 16,000, close to the 1965 peak. As Mark Gearan, a former Peace Corps director, lamented to The Boston Globe, “We spend more on the military marching bands.”  The Peace Corps is not a panacea, but when it comes to projecting America’s values abroad, its spirit comes closest to what the fictional Homer Atkins advocated decades before that global symbol of a different kind of ugly Americanism, Homer Simpson, told his children: “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.”

A Dose of Realism in Honduras Sometimes you have to give political leaders credit. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are on the verge of achieving their own coup in Honduras and advancing American interests with a deftness not seen from Washington in many years. The president's reference to Honduras during his trip to Moscow reflects how the small Central American country is but a pawn as the administration pushes the reset button globally and in the hemisphere. Justice may not be totally served in Honduras, but the country is likely to end up better off anyway. That the administration has joined with the Organization of American States in condemning the ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has left Chávez puffing a lot of hot air with no one to fight against. The United States, long seen as a bully in the region, is suddenly being seen as respectful and wise. The flummoxed Chávez could only come up with a patently hilarious formula in which the "Yankee empire" was still the villain in Honduras but Obama may not be responsible because he is "more like a prisoner of the empire." More fundamentally, Obama and Clinton, perhaps because neither is particularly experienced in Latin America, have approached the region with fresh eyes and wonder what all the fuss is about. The Moscow speech and their actions in Honduras underline that the Cold War really is over. So, are we sacrificing Honduras? No. Zelaya is the main culprit in this crisis, but what counts is the rule of law. His hand has been slapped very hard. Allowing him to serve out the last six months of his term while not holding the referendum that would have opened the way to succession has a better chance of bringing peace and stability to the country than the current standoff. The bigger question will be: What have the rest of us learned? We have all been pushing Latin Americans to uphold the rule of law, but beyond simply insisting that Zelaya was elected, few in the OAS, the European Union or other critics have been willing to give much credence to Hondurans for trying to do just that. The Honduran Supreme Court, as it is empowered to do under the constitution, ordered the army to arrest Zelaya after he began to carry out a referendum for a constitutional convention that the court, Congress and his own attorney general said was illegal. Yet, many Latin American and European governments still call it a "military coup" or, as the Associated Press called it several days afterward, a "military power grab." Clinton and Obama dropped calling it a coup. There are gray areas having to do with presidential powers and the fact that the Honduran constitution prohibits extradition of citizens. The army exiled Zelaya in consultation with civilian leaders to avoid precisely the sort of violence seen when Zelaya tried to return. He forced the country and its institutions against the wall, and for that he should take his medicine.

Reading List: Vietnam

Reading List:  History and Context

Watching List: Vietnam, Somalia/Balkans, Iraq

An interview with Robert McNamara

July 06, 2009

Warm Hearts, Clear Heads, Hard Decisions: 2nd Star to the Right

We've sorta taken our time since the last post partly for laziness and partly for events. What a tumultuous month it's been, too ! On the international front we started with the Cairo Speech (more planned for later) watched it segue into a brief, noisy but dying "revolution" in Iran where we think all the commentators either got it wrong or were playing to the home crowd instead of dealing with reality and had the worst economic news we've had in a while. Nonetheless great progress has been made and the President's agenda continues to move forward (five points for sourcing "hasten forward quickly there"). We also just celebrated the 4th. On that topic we think the last two posts (Reflections & Remembrances: Memorial Day, D-Day, Today,Frontline Lessons Brought Home: Others, Selfs and Manners) summarize everything we had and have to say but as our hattip to our great national holiday we'll point you to this vidclip which adds, in its own way, what needs to be added:The Fife and Drum Corps of the Old Guard. Plus it's fun to watch ! Now that it's time to jump back into the fray we'll also argue that the last post set the table for our key focus here:

The answer to how we best honor the veterans sacrifices is not in laying flowers on their graves nor in applauding them as they walk by in the airport or during the Memorial Day parades. It lies in conducting our own lives according the values of honor, integrity and self-sacrifice that they showed in theirs.

The question then is how are we doing ? And where are we going ? The answer is some good and some bad with the central theme being, "never waste a good crisis". In our system we don't make deep and necessary changes unless the pain of change is clearly exceeded by the pain of implosion; and we're clearly there. The graphic shows how this has cycled from "suck it up" to "building prosperity" to "grasshoppers at play" to "crap and OMG". Now the administration has, IOHO, tabled all the right solutions for all the major problems. The other news of the month is that fundamental new initiatives on Healthcare and Energy/Climate have been tabled. You may disagree but every single thing that's been tabled since Jan20 is, by and large, in line with the best thinking of the beltway, academics and real policy makers accumulated over the last thirty years. It may not be right but it's the best we know how to do at this time.

Continued ...


Citizenship in a Republic: Creating Peace in the Agora

One of our all-time favorite essays is TR's, in  which outlines the importance, role and responsibilities of good citizens for the health of a republic. (Citizenship in a Republic) The bottom line rule is that the health of the republic, more than any other state, depends on the quality of its citizens, their willingness to work self-responsibly and act for not just their own interests but to balance that off what's necessary for the greater good. That extends far beyond the individual citizen to each and every one of our large institutions and organizations and their leaderships. No institutions, ultimately, exists for its own sake. It exists because it provides a valuable service for society and it is society's privilege to judge the value thereof. That means that it is incumbent on each to accept responsibility for the broader welfare of society. Specifically each must 1) provide value in its designed role and 2) act to make sure that society is in good health. The latter has three aspects: a) make sure you do no harm, b) when you unavoidably do harm work with the other parts of society to mitigate and offset that harm as best as can be managed and 3) where there are events and activities damaging the broader society, whether or not they are direct involved, act to help rectify those harms.

The obvious example of violation of this near-fiduciary trust is the Finance Industry but one could also put GM's failure to be a value-creating organization in the same category; at least the folks who's lives have been irreparably damaged would think so. Another example would Healthcare Reform which the major players fought tooth and nail for decades, starting with the auto companies but including big business in general as well as the key stakeholders. The good news there is that nobody is in denial - now we're debating the details. Recently Ivan Seidenberg, CEO of Verizon and head of the Business Roundtable, was interviewed on Charlie Rose and gave what we think is a succinct, accurate, workable and socially responsible assessment of what needs to be done. Naysayers beware. But it's another CEO, Jeff Immelt of GE, who truly talked the talk and is walking the walk. His Rose interview is as heartfelt and cut-to-the-bone discussion of social responsibility as we've heard from the head of a large organization. We don't think your time would be wasted watching both of these; it'll certainly put things in context. The graphic is from an earlier post talking about creating peace in the public square, the Agora, and why it' so vital for the health and well-being of both the Republic and we, the citizens. (Peace in the Public Square: the 100 Days and Re-emergence of Civitas). We picked up on that theme with a series of four major posts exploring what it takes in terms of specifics: Economic Policy, Internationally, Domestic Policy and Public Values (the URLs for all four are in the readings - you may want to review them). You'll find detailed examinations of the state of play and the backup evidence for our assertions on how things are going across the entire spectrum.

Mindsets, Naysayers and Concentrated Minds

Dr. Samuel Johnson is famous for many reasons and sayings but one that echos after centuries is "nothing concentrates a man's mind so wonderfully as the knowledge that he's to be hanged in a fortnight". Sadly there are plenty of folks who are both more fond of criticizing the people fighting in the arena than in contributing to the fight themselves. And worse, they seem to be fighting more for their own partisan advantage rather than providing constructive criticism or workable alternatives. There's no more egregarious example than the Congressional hearings raking Ben Bernanke over the coals for saving, literally, Western Civilization. Worse he was actually publicly accused of perjury yet stood there, took it and was constructive and civil himself. Where we get such public servents escapes me, let alone why they serve so ably and well. Why they stay is beyond my comprehension but not my extreme gratitude. If anybody exemplifies the civic virtues that our veterans demonstrated it is somebody who works in crisis to the best of their abilities knowing that they will be attacked for it by self-serving panderers.

When you're in the heat of the Arena all these nay-sayers seem to forget:

1) You have to have an answer right now, not later and you make the best decisions you can manage.

2) Theoretical critiques that ignore the barriers to implementation and willfully neglect the operational details are not only wrong-headed. They are fundamentally dangerous.

3) Understanding how to make political sausage is a valuable trait in a senior public servant but forcing them to spend all their time in the sausage factory while the conflagration burns down the town serves no one's best interests.

Call it the battle of the mindsets and ask who's you prefer in charge. If you were to edit the mindset graphic to reflect that of the political and interest group opposition one wonders what you'd have. Nothing pretty or encouraging we'd suspect.

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Policy Lessons of the Past

 FDR's Lessons for Obama All the major New Deal reforms that endured had a common purpose: not simply to end the immediate crisis of the Depression but also to make America in the future a less risky place, to temper for generations thereafter what F.D.R. called the "hazards and vicissitudes" of life. By creating the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the New Deal provided more confidence to bank depositors. With the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it guaranteed more reliable information for investors. The Federal Housing Administration gave more protection to mortgage lenders and thus more options to home buyers. The National Labor Relations Board brought more stability to dealings between capital and labor. The Fair Labor Standards Act ensured more predictable wages for the most vulnerable workers. And Social Security offered at least a minimal safety net for both the unemployed and the elderly. Those reforms constitute our most valuable heritage from the Depression era. Few of them generated any appreciable economic stimulus in the short run. But taken together, those measures laid the foundation for unprecedented economic growth and broadly shared prosperity in the years after World War II — an era that the novelist Philip Roth once aptly described as "the greatest moment of collective inebriation in American history." Roosevelt's innovations dramatically changed the character of American society. They deeply shaped the life trajectory of the so-called Greatest Generation, as well as the fates of millions born well after the Depression passed. It was no coincidence that African-American aspirations for full citizenship, denied for a century, were substantially realized at last in that context of stable economic health and almost giddy national self-confidence. By any conceivable metric, the New Deal's reforms were a success, as gauged by the conspicuous upward social mobility of several postwar generations of both genders and all races and ethnicities. With the exception of the FDIC, however, none of them dates from the Hundred Days, or even from 1933. Therein lies an important lesson. Had the Hundred Days swiftly brought about economic recovery, a return to business as usual might have meant politics as usual as well. In that scenario it is doubtful that any of those landmark reforms would have come to pass. Roosevelt, in short, understood the difference between the urgent and the important.

Getting It Right When I was President, F.D.R.'s portrait hung near that of the 26th President, his cousin Theodore Roosevelt. They should have been together. Teddy Roosevelt was the first President to come to grips with the challenges presented by America's transition from a rural to an urban society; from an agricultural to an industrial economy; from a fairly stable and homogeneous nation to a more dynamic, diverse one of new immigrants; from a nation of modest influence to a global power. His successes in limiting the abuses and spreading the benefits of industrial capitalism were admirable but incomplete. Then came World War I and the conservative reactions of the '20s. The Depression gave F.D.R. the chance to use the power of government to complete the work his cousin had begun: to build a great middle class, help the poor work their way into it and give Americans a modicum of security in old age. His leadership during World War II and the plans he made for the U.N. and a permanent leadership role for the U.S. on the world stage cemented his legacy as one of our greatest Presidents. I thought of both Roosevelts when I told Americans that we needed a new social contract for the 21st century, one that would keep us moving toward a "more perfect union" in a highly interdependent, complex, ever changing world. That is the challenge President Obama has inherited. I believe he will succeed in his efforts at economic recovery, health-care reform and taking big steps on climate change. Along the way, I hope he will be inspired by F.D.R.'s concern for all Americans, his relentless optimism, his penchant for experimentation, his relish for spirited debate among brilliant advisers and his unshakable faith in the promise of America.

Political Mindsets of the Present

Obama Aspires to a 'Light Touch'  As he prepares to release the most extensive proposals to change financial regulations since the 1930s, President Barack Obama is a bit anxious. Anxious, that is, for people -- and specifically for his conservative critics -- to know he isn't the heavy-handed meddler some suspect. "I think the irony … is that I actually would like to see a relatively light touch when it comes to the government," he said Tuesday in a White House interview. It is a counterintuitive case to make when his government is a majority shareholder of General Motors, and when he will propose Wednesday new oversight of big financial institutions, new capital requirements for banks and a new consumer-protection agency for small investors. Which is precisely why Mr. Obama went to great pains to explain that there is a philosophy behind the changes he is about to propose to the nation's financial plumbing. Indeed, he says, it is the same philosophy that applies to his broader view of the government's role in the economy: "You set up some rules of the road, ensure transparency and openness, guard against huge systemic risk that will lead...government potentially having to step in to avoid a depression, and then let entrepreneurs and individual businesses compete and do what they do. "And so it's puzzling to me sometimes to hear the standard conservative critique of what we're doing, when essentially every step we're taking involves cleaning up the mess that we found when we arrived here at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue." The president and his aides have reached a point of potential political peril, where the massive interventions they have made to deal with the recession and virtual collapse of Detroit -- to be followed soon by an attempt to overhaul the U.S. health system -- can be seen as the opening stages of a reordering of the American economy.

Vince Lombardi Politics Freud said we’re forever changed by the traumas of our youth, and so it is with the Democrats and Clintoncare. Even as you watch the leading Democrats today in their moment of glory, you can still see wounds caused by the defeat of the Clinton health care initiative. You see the psychic reactions and the scars and the lessons they have taken away so that sort of debacle never happens again. The first lesson they have learned is that domestic policy making should never be dictated from the White House. Second, Democrats learned never to go to war against the combined forces of corporate America. Today, whether it is on the stimulus, on health care or any other issue, the Obama administration and the Congressional leadership go out of their way to court corporate interests, to win corporate support and to at least divide corporate opposition. Third, the Clintoncare collapse and the ensuing decade in the wilderness drove home the costs of failure. This has produced a Vince Lombardi attitude toward winning. There are limits, of course, but leaders in Congress and in the administration seem open to nearly any idea so long as it will lead to passing legislation. On health care, the administration would like a strong public plan, but it is evidently open to a weak one. It is on record against taxing health benefits, but it is clearly willing to tax them. It will do what it takes to pass a bill. All of this has produced a ruthlessly pragmatic victory machine. But the new approach comes with its own shortcomings. To understand them, we have to distinguish between two types of pragmatism. There is legislative pragmatism — writing bills that can pass. Then there is policy pragmatism — creating programs that work. These two pragmatisms are in tension, and in their current frame of mind, Democrats often put the former before the latter. The great paradox of the age is that Barack Obama, the most riveting of recent presidents, is leading us into an era of Congressional dominance. And Congressional governance is a haven for special interest pleading and venal logrolling. When the executive branch is dominant you often get coherent proposals that may not pass. When Congress is dominant, as now, you get politically viable mishmashes that don’t necessarily make sense.

Long, Hard Summer As President Obama confronts his testing time this summer, he holds major assets but faces deep tensions within his governing coalition. This will force him to make hard choices earlier than he might have preferred. His assets include steady affection from a large majority of the country, a political base as solid as the one that allowed Ronald Reagan to govern effectively even through slides in his popularity, and a weak Republican Party whose support is confined to the right end of the political spectrum. At the same time, Obama will be called upon to manage growing friction within his majority between its large progressive core and its less ideological fringes. The danger is that the political center in Congress -- particularly in the Senate -- is not the same as the political center in the country. For example, while some moderate Democrats express skepticism about including a government option as one choice within a reformed health-care system, many recent polls have shown broad support for such a public plan. For senators, the issue is ideological, and their views are also driven by the concerns of interest groups. For most voters, however, the public plan is an additional and welcome choice that expands their ability to bargain within the health-care marketplace. Despites these challenges, Obama enters the second half of the year with approval ratings that hover between the high 50s and mid-60s. Like Reagan, Obama enjoys nearly unanimous favorability within his own party. He wins approval from nine out of 10 Democrats, and liberals give him similar ratings. Obama is also holding the political center. His approval has stayed at 55 percent to 65 percent among independents and 65 to 70 percent among moderates. The major change in the polls over Obama's first months in office has been a consolidation of opposition to him on the political right.

Mindsets of the Future

Crisis Managers vs. Naysayers Last fall, during the darkest days of the financial crisis, if you'd predicted that by the middle of this year, 10 of the biggest banks would have paid back all $68 billion of their bailout money and begun to raise private capital again, that General Motors and Chrysler would have been run through a dramatic bankruptcy restructuring and that the stock market would be up 35 percent from its lows, I probably would have given you 10-to-1 odds that you were wrong. Now that it's all come to pass, you might think we'd take a moment and offer a pat on the back to the people who helped to engineer this little miracle -- folks like Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, Neel Kashkari, Sheila Bair, Barney Frank and so forth. There was nothing preordained about this fortuitous outcome. Nor, given the extraordinary amount of government intervention, can most of the credit go to the free market's natural self-correcting process. Instead of celebrating this feat of economic policy, however, there are those who seem more in the mood for second-guessing and recrimination. A House subcommittee yesterday worked itself into a self-righteous lather over the strong-arm tactics used by then-Treasury secretary Paulson and Bernanke to persuade Bank of America to go through with its purchase of Merrill Lynch after the bank discovered, long after it should have, that the firm known for being bullish on America had a balance sheet full of manure. For sheer hypocrisy, however, you can't beat Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee. Last November, Corker took to the Senate floor to denounce the Bush administration's proposal for bailing out domestic auto manufacturers, saying it didn't force the companies to do enough to restructure their costs and their operations. Among his big concerns: oversize dealer networks that prevented even the strongest dealerships from making a decent profit. Fast forward to today, as Chrysler and GM are finally undergoing the radical downsizing and restructuring that Corker had long demanded. And what does Corker have to say about that? He's outraged at the way the discontinued dealers have been treated and is pushing legislation to ensure that they get at least six months to wind down their operations and receive full refunds from the automakers for any unsold cars or parts. Every crisis generates its own set of leaders willing to take risks, twist arms and even bend a few rules to get us through it. Every crisis also generates its own set of political ankle-biters. It's not hard to tell the two apart.

When Our Brains Short-Circuit Our political system sometimes produces such skewed results that it’s difficult not to blame bloviating politicians. But maybe the deeper problem lies in our brains. Evidence is accumulating that the human brain systematically misjudges certain kinds of risks. In effect, evolution has programmed us to be alert for snakes and enemies with clubs, but we aren’t well prepared to respond to dangers that require forethought. If you come across a garter snake, nearly all of your brain will light up with activity as you process the “threat.” Yet if somebody tells you that carbon emissions will eventually destroy Earth as we know it, only the small part of the brain that focuses on the future — a portion of the prefrontal cortex — will glimmer. “We humans do strange things, perhaps because vestiges of our ancient brain still guide us in the modern world,” notes Paul Slovic, a psychology professor at the University of Oregon and author of a book on how our minds assess risks. This short-circuitry in our brains explains many of our policy priorities. We Americans spend nearly $700 billion a year on the military and less than $3 billion on the F.D.A., even though food-poisoning kills more Americans than foreign armies and terrorists. We’re just lucky we don’t have a cabinet-level Department of Snake Extermination. Still, all is not lost, particularly if we understand and acknowledge our neurological shortcomings — and try to compensate with rational analysis. When we work at it, we are indeed capable of foresight: If we can floss today to prevent tooth decay in later years, then perhaps we can also drive less to save the planet.

Two cheers for America It is presumptuous to mention oneself alongside the author of the greatest book written about America. But during the 13 years that the author of this column has spent in the United States, he too has found his initial exuberance clouded by darker thoughts. When he arrived in 1996, America was lord of all it surveyed, the world’s only remaining superpower, convinced of its supreme benevolence, and the engine of a productivity miracle that left Europeans in awe. Social pathologies such as violent crime were being brought under control; almost half of households owned shares. The place had an air of what Mark Twain once called “the serene confidence which a Christian feels in four aces”. Today, this serene confidence has long gone. Americans are more pessimistic than the Indians or Chinese, worried that their children will not enjoy the opportunities that they have taken for granted. Xenophobia is on the rise, as is nostalgia for a time of stable families and solid values. California, the state that has always reached the future first, is preparing to pay its bills with IOUs. America has had an inauspicious start to the 21st century, to put it mildly. But we should guard against substituting irrational pessimism for irrational exuberance. Yes, America will face competition from developing countries and from an enlarging and deepening European Union. But it brings great resources to the fight. China’s authoritarian regime is brittle. About 40% of India’s people are illiterate, and its pool of trained talent is limited. America will be spared the demographic disasters awaiting Europe and China, thanks to its high birth rate and genius for absorbing newcomers. De Tocqueville, in his optimistic phase, said that “the greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults.” America has succeeded brilliantly in repairing the ancestral fault of racism.

Making the Agora Work. Economy, International Affairs, Domestic Policy and Civic Virtue