Parts to Wholes: the Socionomic Systems Nexus

This week saw the most important State of the Union (SOTU) speech in the lifetimes of many of us. Why? Because, as we've been arguing, we're at the cusp point of deep structural changes that we can choose to deal with constructively or cooperatively and put ourselves on a new path or that we can continue to allow partisan bickering to dominate by supporting lizardbrain appeals to our fears and desperate search for easy answers. Unfortunately the President went into the speech suffering from a Reality Distortion Field (a description of Steve Jobs effect on AAPLphiles intended to be dismissive that fails on delivered results) that have wrapped his efforts, the policies that have been pursued and implemented and no one has bothered to try and decode. In fact from the heights of last year's euphorillusions I've watched successive waves of RDF's overtake first my conservative friends, then my liberal friends and now the independents.

Those multiple fields are built on shock, fear, distortion by partisans, sound byte presentations by the punditocracy and sheer dismay at the magnitude of the challenges, the difficulties of solving them and the raw ugliness of the political process. Welcome to the real world. In some ways these times remind me of the Oxford Debating Union's anti-war resolutions in the late 30's where the peace now and at any cost sorts found themselves a short while later on the beaches at Dunkerque or in Spitfires over Britain or sinking ships or burning tanks in the Mediterranean a few short years later. The general sense of things, defining a baseline if you will, is pretty done by this recent Daily Show episode with Doris Kearns Goodwin.

And the Great Debate we're having is what is the form of government that best suits us? We spent blood and treasure settling the ideological wars of the 20thC. Now we need to decide how to govern a market economy - how to balance commercial interests with the requirements of guardianship. Neither functions well in the long-run without the other and we still haven't figured that out or accepted it. Nor have we figured out how to get there. That will be THE challenge of THIS century!

"The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall our selves, and then we shall save our country. Fellow-citizens, we cannot escape history. We of this Congress and this administration, will be remembered in spite of ourselves. No personal significance, or insignificance, can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass, will light us down, in honor or dishonor, to the latest generation."

Annual Message to Congress (1 December 1862) – A. Lincoln

Continue reading "The Real SOTU, RDPs, Go-Forward Strategies and Your Country" »

Posted by dblwyo at 06:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

By and large in terms of evaluating the candidates and their positions as well as their behaviors we stand by the two previous posts. (Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions,Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results) So much so that from certain perspectives we have nothing to add excepts some reflections and assessments. In our reflections we have two major learnings to share, three strategic assessments and a final conclusion. Which we'll preface by sharing a couple of anecdotes. A friend of our recently accused us of gradually slipping over into being a closet Barry supporter while another suggested that if we keep taking a dispassionate stance and attempting to be both balanced and nuanced the nutjobs would hunt us down. C'est la vie. For the record we think we've been following the data where it leads.

Two Key Learnings

1. First off we've been surprised by the dominance of the hindbrain in most decision-making in this election, even among our friends and acquaintences. Our second anecdote is a barside conversation with a lovely young lady who somewhat more than in her cups confessed that she found Barry to be the embodiment of evil. More than a tad extreme in our humble opinion and factually wrong from the point of view of her interests - Barry's proposed tax cuts would work more to her benefit than Johnboy's if they prove feasible which they won't. And his economic strategies are pretty dead on with our checklists of the short-, intermediate and long-term requirements backed up by a better team than any seen since Lord Keynes architected the post-war world at Bretton Woods.

2. Our second big learning was the extent to which these guys are actually both very self-aware, reflective and haven't missed anything (the last post gave the URL addressess  for their Smith Dinner roasts which prove that point). Complementing that observation is that one that it takes a crisis to force change - we've known what to do about Healthcare, Energy, Education, et.al. and etc. for decades but couldn't get the necessary political support while all the grasshoppers partied on. (Oil and Other System Shocks: Beyond Iraq & Georgia,911 Memorial: Fix the Problem Don't Repeat the Crash). It's truly time for some substantive changes but it's not entirely clear that the voters either grasp reality, are aware of how hard this is going to be and neither candidate has laid it out so it's graspable.

Three Observations

1. First off appeals to the hind (or lizard) brain have dominated the political discourse with extensive perjoration by both sides but much more so on Johnboy's part. We've learned, the hard way, that it's necessary first to sell the heart, i.e. appeal to the emotions, before persuading the forebrain thru reason. On the whole, again IOHO, Barry has done a much better job of speaking both to the center and injecting substantive content into the discussion. While Johnboy has waffled from one tactic du jour to another, never settling on a clear theme, messages or even tactics. Which would tell us that certain requisites for leadership are lacking in the man who's running on his leadership capacities.

2. The voters as a whole continue to be extremely uncomfortable with Barry; he's never managed to connect with them on an emotional level as best we judge it. Part of this is his clear, cool, cerebral style and personality. A bigger part, we think, is that he represents a major generational change and his nuanced, pluralistic approach to things is more consistent with the style of the younger generation and its' sensiblities while JB's style attempts to be more certain, blunt and straight-forward. We think this lack of connection, not the race issue, is the real lingering doubt in voter's minds. On the other hand JB has run such a terrible, ill-organized and badly led campaign with a terrible organizational execution that he hasn't had to step forward. In an odd way he's been free to play the strategic offense and the tactical defense. JB has never established a strategy and has, as said, waffled on tactics du jour.

3. As a result of which we haven't seen much truth-telling in this campaign. Some...but not a lot. But people are definitely running scared. How that plays out will determine who wins - and the economic rescue fiasco pretty well destroyed JB's credibility - not to mention the fact that his general discussions of the most serious problems we face has been backward-looking, simple-minded and un-resonate with the voters. 

A Final Reflection

At the end of the day you man up and make the best choice you can based on the available data. We consider it strangely and strongly ironic that those in our network who're die-hard McCain supporters have watched him fail to get organized, fail to establish a clear leadership position and violate his own ethical standards; or at least permit his campaign to do so.

The choice may turn out to be wrong - even badly so - but since push comes to shove right now the data drive us to make our best choice and then deal with the consequences. What we've attempted to do in these posts is filter out the emotionally appealing labels each has tried to stick on the other, call foul when the perjoration gets excessive and focus on what each is saying of some substance. And we've attempted to do so by laying out things so you can do your own analysis.

But choices must be made...and lived with. So, and on balance, we'll be supporting Barry this time around. With all the downside risks that his naivte in foreign policy and the pronounced weaknesses of the Dimowackic FP bench are more than offset by the depth and breadth of his economic policies. 

Normally our weightings are 50% Foreign Policy, 30% Economic Policy and 20% Domestic. In these circumstances our weightings are 30%, 60% and 10%. First keep the economy turning over - it is after all the sine qua non of everything else.

Good luck to us all ! We're entering a brave new world where the Grasshopper's of the '90s is now going to have be paid for by us all turning into hard-working ants. So be it. 

After the break there's a very extensive and deeply informative collection of excerpts - if you haven't already decided or are prepared to weigh things in the balanced we highly recommend them. And, looking beyond tomorrow to the real consequences, we recommend them even more. One way/weigh or another it'll be shaping our collective futures at the cusp point of a critical election. 

Continue reading "Campaigns, Candidates, Consequences: Some Assessments" »

Posted by dblwyo at 12:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Well now that the debates are so far behind us, the punditocracy has weighed in and we've had a chance to contemplate the results let's weigh and assess them. At this point we've really and truly had a better chance to evaluate these two candidates than any others. Starting with the Saddleback Interviews - which were very revealing - and moving on thru three different and excellent debates. The last of which was the best as a debate IOHO and that of many others. Most importantly we've had a chance to see the candidates and how they perform with a real 0300 wake-up call. And for a final touch-me-up the candidates mutual roast speeches from the Al Smith dinner are online and widely accessible. In some ways the best part of the campaign and revealing of whole other sides of both.

Debate/Campaign Handicapping 

In terms of judging the debates we laid out our filtering process in a prior post (Crisis, Debates and Leadership ? Yeah, Right.) and haven't seen any reason to change either the filters or the conclusions. Briefly there's three-parts - appeals to the lizard-brain (the hindbrain) or more nicely put the heart, matters of substance and policy and distortionate mis-labeling of the opponents position. Of which both candidates are guilty. For example Barry and his team have mis-represented Johnboy's healthcare proposals and tried to stick him with the Bush label. More damagingly Johnboy and his time have tried the "terrorist" label and built a pretty negative set of campaign ads around that, ACORN and other severe mis-representations. For example on Acorn alone - you can register all the Micky Mice you want but to vote the person in question has to show up at the poll and present a valid Mouse id. Think about that for a minute - calling that a major threat to democracy, especially when at best it's less than a 2% error rate, is beyond distortionate. Worse to spend precious debate time whining about being abused and then within 90 sec. continuing on into these pejorative and distorted attacks is not appealing to many. As the polls show. Especially when there are serious matters of substance to be dealt with. All of this is reflected in an update version of an earlier chart showing our summary judgment of the two candidates. What we've seen from Barry is a calm and cool head in crisis, an ability to explain things and vastly increased substance that's largely correct. Though JB has at least two proposals (mortgage write-downs, healthcare) we'd like to see implemented. In contrast JB hasn't fixed his problems but has worsened them - less and less on framing and explaining and more and more emotional attacks that're ungrounded and pejorative. Combined with a very erratic performance in the crisis.

Matters of Substance

Speaking of which we carefully outlined what we feel is the required integrated economic policy program and basically heard it walked down in detail by Barry. Overall we've actually heard more substance in this campaign that's pretty much aligned with our take on what strategic policy should be than we've heard in a very long time. Just to remind you - when we focus on serious matters and not the lizard-brain - our take on policy is summarized in the accompanying blueprint. The really good news is that with regard to Energy, Education and Healthcare all those are truly on the table, have received serious and constructive proposals and, by-n-large, the candidates have converged on workable centrist positions. Oddly enough their positions on Iraq have also, for all practical purposes converged as well, though you have to listen between the lines of the distortions. Our biggest remaining hesitancy about Barry is his continuing refusal to backdown on the surge combined with his populist panderings on international trade policy. Yet when you listen carefully to Debate #1 both candidates are closer to each other, believe it or not, than either is to any other candidate or anything that the rest of the world thinks they're going to see. The biggest differences are in Economic policy where JB keeps retreating to old shibboleths of Supply Side III and slogans and mottoes instead of substance. Barry on the other hand not only has outlined an integrated program but has gathered a beyond All-Star to Hall of Fame level advisory team and is both listening to and guiding them. Given our views that Economic policy is the single most important issue cluster facing us that almost overwhelmingly indicates support for him. (Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions)

Selling Substance to the Hindbrain

You can't lead if you can't sell your solutions. On the other hand you can't accomplish anything if your solutions are wrong-headed either. So the trick is to balance out emotional appeals with matters of substance while also maintaining your political support AND garnering support from new constituencies. A difficult but necessary balancing act. We've tried to capture and represent it with the accompanying chart. See what you think. 

The bottom of the chart shows the distribution of voters by the long-term representation of their views. We have about 13% who are strong D's and R's but the vast majority of the population is more centrist. Unfortunately for many years the parties have campaigned and tried to govern from their "bases", i.e. the extremes. Which has the terrible consequence of replacing constructive policy with hindbrain appeals. Now the vertical chart shows the distribution of how most folks make decisions - and since most don't have time to wade thru the details they decide with their (our) hearts. Though as the balance of idiotocracy punditry shows knowing a lot hasn't stopped a lot of commentators from hearing what they want to hear instead of helping us figure out what's really going on. On balance we think Barry has done a better job of synthesizing the heart and the head and migrating toward the center while JB has retreated to some darker place in the heart.

In the readings section you'll find three endorsements, of sorts for Barry that are startling in their own way. The first is David Brooks' character appreciation. Read the excerpt because otherwise you won't believe it. Next is the Washington Post's endorsement which is as fair and balanced an assessment as we've seen anyplace. And finally there's Colin Powell's endorsement this weekend. The excerpt doesn't begin to do him justice - click on thru and listen to his Meet the Press interview. Hard-nosed, balanced and heartfelt. This is a man of integrity, honor and ideals. 

The last half of the readings are selected stories on key policy issues - match them against our blueprint if you would on the one hand. And on the other agains the issues the candidates have or haven't addressed. 

Continue reading "Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results" »

Posted by dblwyo at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well the last of the debates are tonight and THE focal issue, as it should be, is the state of the economy. In our last post (Wobble Wheels Wakeup: Crisis, Response, Policy, Execution) we discussed the situation beyond the various worldwide rescue and re-vitalization efforts. In particular a key point we'll re-iterate is that once we get the wheels bolted back on the wagon we need to keep careening down a rather icy mountain sloped. A serious recession is pretty much in the cards and locked-in. The only real debate is how deep and how long; and this one is likely to be longer and deeper than anything many folks have seen for a long time.

One of the "interesting" anecdotes making the rounds in the financial community is that all the advisers aren't getting any phone calls ! It would seem that people are so shell-shocked that they're still trapped in the 1,000-yard stare syndrome. For my own part the contacts from family, friends and network more than reinforces that. We saw a more than generational collapse in the markets all collapsed into basically week. They come by their shock very....very honestly. We had to talk a bunch of folks out of selling their existing portfolios on Mon. open - which meant they would have missed the run up that mostly recovered the worst day from last week. We're far from out of the woods yet. In the readings the first one, finally, puts the emphasis where it needs to be - all these worldwide interventions are NOT quick fixes. Now we've been talking up the economy as THE central issue in this election for months (WRFest 20Jan08(Economics): Oops...Recession Ahead,The Coming Economic Crisis,Standing Corrected: Education 2nd Avoiding Economic Collapse 1rst) and outlined our sketch of a multi-faceted program that moves beyond arresting the immediate problems to looking at what needs to be done next and then beyond that. Which we thought we'd review here a little more. 

Comprehensive & Strategic Economic Program

Given all that what should we be doing - and therefore what should be looking for in tonight's debate. Well two things. One as close to this outline as possible and two minimal populist pandering, bearing in mind "nobody can handle the truth". That said in both his acceptance speech and the last debate Barry basically walked right down our reccy's while Johnboy appears to be improvising as he goes and throwing out one offs - not an integrated program. You might/ought/should invest the time to listen to this interview very carefully - from the guy who's called it for three years now !

Nouriel Roubini, New York University, Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini, an economist who predicted the depth and magnitude of the current financial situation before the decline of Bear Sterns, discusses the indicators he saw and his recommendations for stemming the financial downturn.

Step 1: Get Credit Flowing Again - we've been discussing this almost exclusively for the last several posts. While it's still very early days yet we think that the basic elements are in place and being acted on as rapidly as possible.

Step 2: "FIX" Housing - we're not going to get the economy back on it's feet while Housing continues to drag so much. At the same time too many people bought too many houses for unsupportable prices with funny money. Until prices come down significantly MORE it won't start self-correcting. In other words we need for the homeowners and the lenders to take another 15% haircut, write it off and re-negotiate the loans to something more sensible. And it'll need a serious institutional framework.

Step 3: Major Fiscal Stimulus - the last so-called recovery was put together on the Housing ATM and was pumping $500-700B/year into the economy at least. The economy will fall into a major serious recession unless we stimulate it and that stimulus needs to be of the same order of magnitude. This also needs to be quick, targeted and temporary - not another political boondoggle (fat chance I know but....). Tax cuts won't do it. On the other hand the impact on the deficit is irrelevant for a lot of reasons (still be low as a % of GDP, worse w/o stimulus). Things like extended unemployment benefits, more rebates, and direct spending programs fit the bill. Lots of very...y good economists like Larry Summers have tabled excellent proposals (btw - Barry's econ team is non-pareil and Larry's on it. See below). 

Step 4: Infrastructure Investment -the US has let it's electrical, waterway and transportation infrastructures deteriorate to the point of...well never mind. A massive decade long infrastructure rebuilding project would see us get new electrical grids, new highways and transportation systems and possibly new power plants and alternative energy supplies. This would have the benefit of providing enormous fiscal stimulus, i.e. creating jobs and making a major long-term investment for things we know how to do. BtW - major sidebar. The long boom of the '80s and '90s was primarily built around two things. Supply side is utter nonsense. Reagan got it going the old-fashioned way with deficit spending and Clinton got lucky and also cut the defense budget. Bingo, that's it.

Step 5: Strategic Investment (Energy, Biosystems, Materials) - we need new industries and we need to get off of our oil dependencies. There's things we can do in each and both. For example by increasing conservation as well as mandating enormously higher mileage thru better materials and engineering we could get a huge jump for the next ten years. Then we need to build new power plants, particularly nuclear, we need to open up our own offshore deepwater to oil exploration and we need more refineries. That all togeter takes us into the next decade. Beyond that we need some major alternatives - and don't believe 'em. We don't have the knowledge or technology do magic yet. For example we should really be heavily emphasizing coal but need major new technology not the Rube Goldberg fixes running around. So a concerted national effort (does the word Manhattan Project ring any bells) to create major new energy sources and technologies would stimulate the economy, create new industries and provide us several paths to the future.

Combine that we major parallel investments in new life sciences and materials, both because they offer the best hopes for the Next Big Things and because they are synergistic with energy investments. For example if we pie-in-the-sky about Fusion we need the new materials for the reactor vessels. Or new lightweight composites for high-temperature turbines. Similarly new bio-sciences offer up their own benefits not least of which is designed alternative energy crops as well as way to control and manage environmental problems. The real beauty of this is that it doesn't take a lot now because it's all at early stages.

Step 6 - Education Investment: the decline in average income is due more to natural evolutionary shifts in the kinds of labor demanded by an increasingly technical economy. When the US Economy really started on its' accelerated path after the turn of the 19thC few know that a key ingredient was the widespread development of high-schools and the resultant upgrading of the skills and knowledge of the population. Education is the co-dependent imperative along with creating new industries IMHO. (Readings(Education): the Single Most Important Domestic Policy Issue) 

 So there you have it in a nutshell :) A complete now to futures strategic economic policy recommendation. Believe it or not it's at least a decent strawman based on reality, the ways things actually work instead of fantasies and offers some real benefits. Test it against the candidates if you like. The results might be interesting ! The guy you want to vote for is the one that comes closet to ticking off this strategic agenda, doesn't offer up utter unsinn (German for nonsense and Supply Side III more than qualifies), has the best team and sounds like he's got a better grasp. We highly recommend you at least skim the readings to get a feel for how they stack up therein. And also to help you decide on where you think economic policy lies on the importance spectrum. We happen to think it is the sine qua non and will dominate the next Presidential term and outweigh almost any other issue short of a major shooting war.

Continue reading "Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions" »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The good news, such as it is, about the sudden explosion of the credit and economic crisis is that we're getting to watch both our prospective leaders in a tough situation. Make no mistake this is a real 3a.m. call and how they've both responded to it tells us a lot. And then we have the debates, which are much less revealing but in that lack of revelation also might have something to say. After the break you'll find a bunch of skimmable excerpts that trace out the last couple of weeks and the candidates reactions, some discussions of the debates and a couple of carefully selected assessments of last night's in the context of the crisis. On the whole these are not shining moments for either candidate, neither is doing too badly but, on-balance, Barry has played a more careful and successful game. Wile Johnboy badly wrong-footed himself with his grandstanding and what appears to be tone-deafness. We'll get to our specific handicapping of last night in a bit but to understand the situation take a look at "Meet the Press'" survey of the Electoral Map and it's sudden huge shifts in Barry's favor. Now Real Clear Politics (RCP National Average) has Barry over JB by 49 to 44 and In-Trade puts his odds at 73%. The key here is not so much that 5pt lead as it is the electoral shift. For an excellent discussion of the background context this Rose panel discussion, supposedly focused on the VP debate, has more to say about the situation and the candidates and is one of the better ones. Between those and our prior post (Calm Down: the Fat Lady Ain't Sung, Yet.) the argument that JB has wrong-footed himself seems to be covered beyond a need for more detail; and the readings will reinforce the assertion.

Assessing the Debate

Given all that going into last night's debate Barry had to not make any major mistakes while JB needed to come up with something new. First goal achieved, second stillborn. But neither stepped up and really either took any chances nor offerred a compelling assessment of the situation or a convincing path forward. That said, on the whole - and you had to listen carefully - Barry did offer up a correct strategic economic plan or plans, JB offerred up one tactical but workable suggestion but still doesn't get how serious this is and with regard to Economics and the crisis I have to give it to Barry.

In judging the debate there are three major strands being woven together all at once and you have to filter out two of them. The first is that politics is a matter of the heart, not the head. You may have a technically correct understanding and recommendation but if you can't explain and sell it then de nada; it doesn't matter. (Marketing Elephant Pills: Struggling to Explain the Rescue) On the other hand you can focus on just the selling and forget the substance. Which is all too often what our politics has been in the last twenty years. What politicians know or they aren't in the game is that first you start with the appeal to the lizard-brain with the right labels and use that to present your program. Given that's what most people judge by instead of substance and analysis it's as natural an outcome as breathing. The third thing politicians do is try to slap a label on their opponent and get them associated with bad thoughts and both candidates played that hand over and over again. My own opinion is enough already, we heard you, it's not convincing and it's certaily not useful. And judging from some of the polls and interviews that's a general reaction. The problem is it's not general enough and people do buy into those labels.

Once you filter things out what you're left with is the hints of substance. Ironically once you do that, and something we've mentioned before, both candidates are closer to each other and a pragmatic and progressive middle than they can afford to admit. For example on Energy both are essentially saying we need a concerted national effort that includes all the options in a balanced fashion, from coal and nuclear to wind and solar. On Healthcare they're actually both pretty close and market-oriented - we've come a long way from Billarycare II and an even longer way from not being on the agenda. Interestingly enough McCain's healthcare proposal is the most radical and addressess one of the biggest problems which is because it's paid for by tax-free dollars by employers it's subsidized, restricted to only those working for big companies and not portable. By bringing it out in front of the tax barrier all those are addressed, nobody gets hurt and it's a darn sensible financing mechanism. BtW with the proposed tax credit the net effect for most folks is no different than they have but it's enormously more flexible. In the long-run I'll bet some version of JB's plan gets adopted insofar as financing goes - it just makes too much sense and is too workable.

They still have some serious divergences on foreign affairs and in this area more than anything Barry scares me. You don't in fact announce to the world that you're going to attack Pakistan. JB has a much better command of the terrain on a tactical level - that is in specific problems where he's worked he has mastery. But he has no overall framework - which is a major weakness. When you parse it all out, again, despite the labeling and perjorations the differences are smaller than they were and close to realities. My biggest worry about Barry here is his blunt refusal to backdown on the Surge by hearkening back to the original decision. Hindsight is great but we are where we are. What would you do in the circumstances ?

Which leaves the economic crisis as the main differentiator IMHO. And there JB came up with one solid tactical proposal, buy down mortgages and make the banks and owners eat some losses, which I consider sensible, workable and necessary. BtW it's also in my own seven-point economic blueprint among s.t. emergency fixes along with major strategic initiatives.Readings (Economy): It Really is the Economy, Stupid Frog I strongly suggest you review as a checklist for last night's debate. 

You need to be real clear about this despite both candidates dodging and loosing my respect and indicting their credability. If we get the wheels of credit turning we've still got a major Housing problem and an organic downturn that's worsening by the day. And it's been visible for months. The candidate who came out and said that and explained it so that people got it would be the one you want. Of course if you're not sure and botch the explanation that'd just panic the sheeple over the cliff and make the situation worse. Maybe playing safeball isn't such a bad idea after all, eh ? 

The bottomline is that Barry marched right down my list while JB was still arm-waving about tax cuts and how he'd fix things. Not serious. Even less serious and much more dangerous were his candidates for Treasury Secretary. If you read nothing else read Perlstein's assessment and that article.

Bon Appetit' 

Continue reading "Crisis, Debates and Leadership ? Yeah, Right." »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Well now that we're past the Republican convention it's time to try our first pass summary and interpretations. Like the Democratic conventions there were many things that surprised me, only this time not as positively on the whole. There are at least three clusters of things being woven together at any convention. First, there's the political business  to be done. In Denver the challenge was to bring everybody together, bridge the Billary gap and get everybody energized and marching together. McCain had a similar and longer-standing challenge with the far right so-called base (it wouldn't be the base if it hadn't been pandered to for years by a politics of divisiveness; nor would the Republicans have lost their grip on the center as they have). Second the candidate and the key speech makers have to establish the themes, key messages, elements of substance and lines of policy and strategy on which they're going to attempt to close to the finish. In 2004 the Dims convention was dismal at this, represented by the long, disjointed, dis-organized and incoherent speech of the candidate. It went downhill from their. This time both candidates, conventions and parties did enormously better. The Democrats did superbly IMHO while the Republicans did so so at best for reasons we'll get into. If you want to check out my summary take from the D's try this: Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences.

The third thing, building on the line of policy and strategy development is that the candidates have to establish enough substance to their policies to move from arm-waving to serious issues. It's in this area that the D convention was enormously surprising to me - first how well the basic themes were introduced and coordinated in one giant weaving across all the speakers, Hillary but not Bill excepted. But no matter, by the end she was under control, her partisans were in the tent and she and her bitterness became irrelevant. Especially after Gov. Palin spoke and proved that breaking the glass ceiling don't require chips on both shoulders and knee-spikes. Now in the prior post we referred you to our YouTube playlist for the D's with the comment that you really need to listen yourself. That playlist selected the key speeches that I thought were and are worth your time; they're all excellent. The RCon speeches are now also in a YouTube playlist courtesy of C-Span. This time though I can't recommend listening to them all, and that gets to the heart of the matter.

Reflections and Observations

In no particular order but as they occur to me here are some observations, buttressed by the readings you'll find after the break, which are divided into two groups. Political analysis (with several David Brooks columns - one of which is the single worst I've ever seen him write using very clever sophomoric humor to parody Barry's speech and the rest of which meet his usual exceptional standards of writing, insight and wisdom. One can take his terrible Barry column as a bad day and confirmation of my argument that the substance of the speech was outstanding; and therefore scary to a conservative). 

1. The three best speeches were Palin's, Johnboy's and Joe's. Palin's in fact was funny as the dickens and well worth your time to listen to as the collection of one-liners delivered with humor and without malice are a refreshing change all around. They're also dead on zingers that will eventually have to be answered. The attacks on Palin prior to the speech were, IMHO, greatly out of line and are going to backfire. The people making them are too narrow in their grasp of what they rest of America is like. There's a whole post here on cultural differences from somebody who grew up in the West and lives in the Northeast but trust me - a women who can clean her catch and dress her kill while still being charming, cute, intelligent and forceful is a tribute to our society. Not an indictment of it - and the left-wingers who've reversed five decades of feminist rhetoric when confronted with a women who really does do it all do nothing but embarrass and indict themselves. Fortunately Joe Biden and Barry are class acts and stood up in her defense. A new chapter in Hofstadter's book on fanatics is being written for the posthumous new edition.

2. Similarly Johnboy and the the other speakers showed a great deal of class in praising their opponents as opposed to the last twelve years of demonization. A refreshing change, long overdue and getting to the heart of what we need to do to move forward (Pastor Rick's points about tolerance and civic responsibilities). They struck me as very sincere but in point of fact who cares - as long as they act that way that works for me. Outstanding. We're lucky in general to have these people - all four of them. And the Rips in particular are lucky to have Johnboy without whom they would be deservedly in the wildnerness.

3. Personally I couldn't listen to many of the other speeches - political hackmanship with no style, grace or foward-looking substance. Giuliani and Romney in particular made backward looking partisan speeches, which we know they don't really believe in from their own candidacies (though in Mitt's case who knows what he believes in). But they spoke to the heart of the traditional Rip, as opposed to Reps, concerns. This was Newt the Grinch's partisan polemics at it's propagandistic worst. And is fully captured in the ideologies embedded in the Rip platform. The gap between what Johnboy's been saying and the ideological purity of that platform and those speeches is wider than the gap between John and reality or Barry. In fact on many of his key points he, Gov. Barracuda and Joe L. sounded remarkably like their opponents.

4. Particularly when they started talking about representing America, not a party. And critiquing the Ripoffs for eight years of corruption and malfeasance. Below in the readings you'll find several pieces related to that, including the one on Jack the Ripper's (many puns intended) most recent sentencing hearings at which he expressed great remorse. Meanwhile of course penning his memoirs blaming it all on everybody else - talk about your self-centered, self-serving, cynical opportunist ! 

Brief Policy Observations

You won't find much if any of that in the commentariat's discussions - hence the need to listen for yourselves. But what's maybe an hour - you'll spend more time than that making up your next grocery list. As you listen bear in mind what we've been saying about the layers of meaning - conventions are the time to inroduce policy directions and themes, not detailed proposals. But if you listen reasonably, but not too much so, carefully you'll hear a lot to like and agree with in Johnboy's speech. In fact the differences between him and Barry on key issues is pretty narrow. He started with different priorities and was really light, i.e. non-existent, on the economy. And not as comprehensive, organized and substantive as Barry. (Barry's speech was a policy wonk like me's ideal political speech). Nonetheless...

1. Johnboy started with foreign policy, building off a very candid and revealing discussion of his personal history, as you'd expect. But when you parse it out the differences between him and Barry on Iraq are now, as the result of the Surge and COIN tactical innovations, very narrow. Both are for withdrawl with a permanent long-term presence, both want to move on and so forth. In case you didn't know btw Pakistan is in the process of putting Bhutto's widower into the Presidency so that he can restore the kleptocracy that brought down the last civilian governments. Anyway Barry and Johnboy are just about on the same page with regard to Russia and Johnboy went out of his way to emphasis the importance he places on "softpower" and diplomacy. (Iraq Resartus (Readings): Stability, Progress and Will,Brave New World: Non-Flatness, History and Challenges)

2. While John was more than a little disingenuous on many of the policy issues regarding his opponent - in fact in most of the places where he accused Barry of something it not only wasn't true but was contradicted. But again you have to listen to both speeches.

• Energy - actually both are for a balanced national energy policy aiming at long-term independence using offshore drilling, alternative source, coal and nuclear as well as the green stuff. You can tick down our list of a balanced energy strategy and find they both hit every point with reasonably proper weightings. They both even used the same $700B can't be exported quote ! (In Search of a Nat'l Energy Policy: Check the Mirror Pogo)
  
• Education - more agreement in not despite John's accusations to the contrary. In fact nearly identical upto and including Barry's use of the line that bad teachers need to find another line of work which John then turned around and re-used.(Readings(Education): the Single Most Important Domestic Policy Issue)
• Healthcare - you won't belive how close the both are to the same policy and how close that closet policy is to what the majority of knowledable experts and economists think it should be. Fortunately there's a great blog post we've listed that walks you thru that.

3. Economy - well one of Barry's great strenghts, both in terms of putting it first, listing out all the components and coming up with a resonable set of recommendations. Johnboy was very weak here overall and passed over it too lightly. This will be and is the central issue in this election. BtW - in case you missed it Fannie and Freddie (Frannie) are having a major rescue mounted this weekend before their collapse takes Western Civilization into a new dark age (not really kidding in any way about this - see the link the readings). (A Little Off-Topic: the Credit Crisis, the Economy & You) Barry proposed major re-thinkings of our regulatory infrastructure which is vital. He also linked his efforts to grow the economy to long-term energy and other innovation investments.

Strangely enough their recommendations for how to deal with trade adjustments and globalization were identical. That is we can't escape a global economy but we can help people find new jobs - in fact Johnboy's detailed program (his most) wouldn't have sounded too out of place from Robert Reich a few years back. Amazing. And correct. In fact, wheter you believe it or not, they both support market economies, institutional reform and helping the winners compensate the losers while investing in future jobs thru innovation, technology and education. (Standing Corrected: Education 2nd Avoiding Economic Collapse 1rst, Readings (Economy): It Really is the Economy, Stupid Frog)

This is, collectively, the most rational discussion of economic policy by politicians in a major, in fact THE,forum I've heard in my lifetime. 

Continue reading "Politics and Policy II: Next Convention, Any Consequences ?" »

Posted by dblwyo at 02:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's all well and good to talk about how the campaign is going, how the candidates need to find their voices, what good men they were revealed to be and so on. But as the last couple of weeks have revealed it's still a serious, challenging and ugly world out there. As it happens both the latest NYT/CBS and WSJ/NBC polls come to similar conclusions: 1) you guys are nice guys but you're in a deadlock because b) you haven't made yourselves clear about what c) the major issues are in ways that are convincing. To quote from the NYT story excerpted after the break:

"Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are heading into their conventions neck and neck in the presidential race, with voters focused overwhelmingly on economic issues but convinced that the candidates are not paying enough attention to their priorities, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Slim majorities said neither candidate had made clear what he would do as president..."

What we'd like to do here - likely in two parts - is use some relatively recent stories and columns combined with various work of ours to summarzie the major policy challenges in Domestic and Foreign Affairs. As we had into the conventions this isn't a bad list. Moreover because it's been sorted and categorized according to the structure we've used before in how things are related and what needs to be concentrated on, in what order but in a balanced fashion, you can go into the upcoming weeks with your own checklist of evaluation criteria. Or at least a way of developing one. 

Here's my own personal model/blueprint of what the major issues are, how they cluseter and what the key relationships are. Starting at the top this is indeed a time for change but the question is what changes ? My suggestion is that the top-level changes required re-recovery of core civic values and virtues that combine self-responsibility with proper public policy (civilized adulthood ?). And that we need to re-think some/many of the governing mechanisms that have subsidized the capturing of the political processes by partisans and special interests. If you won't change the mechanisms you can, as my dad used to say, "wish in one hand and xxx in the other. which'll get full ?"

Strangely enough the concerns, anxieties and attitudes of many seem to mirror that. We then sort the major "line-item" talking points into major clusters - the ones where we need a coherent, comprehensive, workable and realistic set of policy principles because they are critically important. How do we relate to the world and manage those relationships ? What should we do, and can we do about our deteriorating economic situation ? "What do we need to do to arrest, recovery and move forward domestically ? You'll find the readings below grouped into rough correspondence. In addition we've gone back and combed thru a bunch of the prior postings in each areas that took deep dives and listed them as well.

While we're going to pick up Foreign Affairs in a future post and concentrate on Economic and Domestic ones here let's offer up a brief strawman.

Foreign Affairs: while normally this is the single most critical area, and will always be vitally important, the weight may be shifting. In any case Iraq is coming under control though it will need a sustained commitment. Afghanistan is at a similar point that Iraq was a couple of years ago but the most immediately dangerous problem is Pakistan which may be imploding before our eye. Meanwhile Russia's behavior has indicted the hidden presumptions that a "New World Order" of international cooperation was built on. However IOHO they are neither strong enough nor resilient enough to be a serious long-term threat and are containable. The most serious, if not urgent, long-term policy issue is our relationship with China. And then India. With whom we should still be able to re-architect a viable, stable and peaceful world system if we're willing. Despite Russia.

Economy: this is the single most important challenge because it is the bedrock foundation of everything else, the least understood, the most badly explained and the one where both candidates are failing to deliver a clear, comprehensible view. And the one where we're in the most immediate, intermediate and long-term trouble. The good news is that all of the problems are addressable and perhaps fixable, if not in months. In fact they will require sustained effort over years, perhaps decades. The most immediate one of which is the on-coming recession coupled with the need to re-structure the financial system and re-vamp our regulatory framework. Next up is improving the infrastructure of the economy which can also serve as an intermediate term stimulus program that pays for itself in the long-run. In the long-run we need to find new sources of innovation and growth which suggest serious investments in R&D, pilot programs and most especially in Energy and Bio-sciences. Again a place where the return on investment is potentially phenomenal.

Domestic Policy: there are a lot of things that need work from Social Security to Healthcare. Again they are all, without excpetion, addresable and many reasonable proposals have been put forward that would resolve a lot of the difficulties. The single most important one and perhaps the most intractable is Education. Which, demonstratably, is the most critical domestic element of our future prosperity in this changing world, the area where we've known change is needed and where all our own evil demons have gotten in our way the most. But, as they used to say in the Foreign Legion, "March or Die". Or in our case "Adapt or Fall Behind". 

Continue reading "Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review" »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After the break you'll find a rather large collection of political readings excerpts that trace out the evolution of the campaign. If you click on the blue title it's a URL in disguise and will take you to the on-line original, presuming it's still available. But just skimming them tells an interesting and powerful story about a hiatus that's moving/moved thru three stages; and into which the readings are organized. First there was continued puzzlement and confusion as to what the candidates stood and stand for. Next was them wrestling with their campaigns, messages, staffs, tactics and key messages in the "lull" prior to the convention when things will really kick off and more people will start paying attention. Third is the most recent period as the answers gell out to these field experiments but unfortunately they aren't going to be what we'd like - at least on this blog. More unfortunately the "wrong" answers are working.

Where's My Gettysburg Speech ?

Strangely enough several of the last posts are actually mutually reinforcing. Some readers may have wondered what the post on stories and values (Stories We Tell Ourselves: Values, Culture and Change) had to do with geo-politics and current affairs. But in fact it's the stories that the candidates tell us that help us understand them, whether or not they will be the best representative of our interests, and good leaders for the broader welfare of the country. At the end of July we put up a post that walked thru this question of voice in some detail and found that neither candidate had found their voices as yet. (Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World) Voice in the sense of being able to tell us, as the great poets and artists did, how to make sense of things, that capture the essence of complex things and present them in graspable terms, and convince us that there lies a workable approach and a person to trust. If you don't think stories are critically important to changing things we urge you to consult the career of 'ol Abe, who told better stories that cut to the heart of complex issues better than almost anyone else in US history. If you don't believe us read the Gettysburg address - a few short lines that captured the heart of what this country is about, why we are a democracy, needed to be a union and the ultimate value of the ultimate sacrifices. Four huge, complex ideas compressed to their most basic essence. Of course there are some modern leaders who do relatively well - meaningful eloquence is still around. Try this if you don't believe it: MLK: "I Have a Dream".  

Let's hope they find their voices because, as recent events are making clearer by the day, it's an ugly, complex and scary world. The good news is that we've learned this are honest, well-intentioned and principled men who have the best interests of the country at heart. (Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some Real Answers) Though their personalities and approaches are vastly different even though, again strangely, on many issues their policy differences are small when put under a microscope. For example on Energy, Off-shore Drilling, the Environment or - when you parse thru - on Iraq ! Of course there are others where the differences are very pronounced. As best we can tell :). 

So in lieu of a "gettysburg" on the major policy issues what we're getting is what they seem to be able to do instead. Which is a return to old-school politics - though still with more civility than any of the last four elections IOHO. And sadly, sounds bytes, buzzwords, simple-minded explanations, obfustication and (modest) distortion and attack ads are working. Shame on US !! 

Campaign Status

In the readings you'll find URL pointers to several poll analysis articles as well as two publicly available NBC/WSJ polls for July and this month. The story's pretty much the same - it's still open-ended, the picture isn't as clear as it could/should be, but things are beginning to swing in Johnboy's favor more than a little. Peggy Noonan has a very prescient column in which she anticipates this groundshift without being able to pin it down - more kudos to her for taking a shot when she couldn't be crisp. But on those poll results things are indeed begining to really run neck-n-neck. As this chart from Real Clear Politics will make clear. Barry's not finding his voice and Johnboy's finding an alternative. Given that Barry's got a tougher problem being Mr. Nuance he'd better get it in gear.

Electoral Votes

That being said Barry has proven to be one of the best political strategists and tactical operators, as well as a really effective CEO/organizer that we've seen in decades. Which is another way of saying he's putting his money in the right places, the right ways with the right people, tools and messages (as distinct from "Voice"). Put a third way he may be far ahead on Electoral College votes. Your first response will likely be red vs blue state again but there's a couple of things to remember. When you break it down in detail it actually turns out to be urban vs suburb/rural. The next thing to remember is that there's a lot of "battleground states" that could cause big shifts - hence the leaning and toss- up rankings.

Electoral College II

And the third thing to recall is that they don't partition EC votes out based on proportions of votes. This is actually a very....very good thing though it may seem harsh. What it does is force a decision and ensure a clear-cut result. As it happens that's a major factor contributing to the stability of the US election system rather than the swoop, swirl, shifting alliances and shaky ground you end up with in a lot of Parliamentary systems; e.g. France, Italy, Spain, Israel, usw. The Brits seem to be the only folks who've managed to turn a parliamentary system into a stable 2-party one but then they invented it really and have been practicing for a millenia. Anyway enough beating around - if we force (or RCP does) a clear choice based on things right now the results are very....very interesting. 

Continue reading "The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual" »

Posted by dblwyo at 07:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Pastor Rick Warren, of Saddleback Church and the "Purpose Driven Life" has done us all a great service by creating, hosting and running a candid, serious and probing set of interviews with Barry and John-boy. Or given how it played out perhaps we should say, Sen. Obama and McCain. Everyone comported themselves with great dignity, forthrightness, integrity, honesty and spoke well. Despite what you may have heard the reach and range of the questions is such that you really need to watch this for yourself. In aid of that goal after the break you'll find URL pointers to both the CNN online video clips as well as C-SPAN's; and a pointer to a full transcript as well. You'll also find some related readings excerpts associated with their related URLs, if you want to click on through and read the whole thing. We didn't grab everything but did try and grab a representative sample who seem to be reasonably accurate and useful, in our judgment at any rate. Even where we didn't entirely agree with the assessments on either side of the analysis.

Pastor Rick did a superb job and, in our opinion, a serious public service for the nation. You are not likely to hear anything better in this campaign. In fact he set the tone, as well as defined some critical aspirational principles we'd like to see return to the center of our public square.

1. We believe in the separation of Church and State. We do not believe in the seperation of Faith and Politics because Faith is a worldview that should help determine your choices.
2. We need to learn to to disagree without demonizing each other. We need to return Civility to Public Discourse.

 Bottomline you need to watch these - if you're going to vote there is, we think, no better use of your time. Particularly since the general consensus - while not grossly inaccurate - filters out too much, doesn't catch the implications and misses to much of the deeper character because too many of the commentators didn't understand what they were hearing on several levels. You might also want to check out some of the vidclips of Pastor Rich - who agree or not, share his faith or not - is both eloquent, thoughtful and experienced in the ugliness of the real world. His efforts here should change for the better many of the negative impressions bandied about in the MSM and commentariat about Faith-Holders, evangelicals in particular. Beyond that if you have a view of them as simple-minded, monolithic and incurably benighted at least know your opponent better. You might be surprised.

The "consensus" seems to be that John-boy was direct, forceful and impressive. He was certainly better here than in any other venue we've heard him. And that Barry was subtle, nuanced and careful. At a superficial surface level that's probably accurate. But doesn't begin to go far enough, though some of the excerpts provide examples that are fairly accurate. Let me offer up my key impressions.

1. First off these are both impressive people - principled, intelligent, and wanting the best for their country. At the end of the day I ended up liking and admiring them both and would be privileged to have them as friends, colleagues or comrades. On our historical scale solid B players. Bear in mind the list of A players is pretty short, e.g. George, Abe, Teddy and so forth. It's grading on the curve and it's a tough curve. But then it darn well should be, shouldn't it ? 

2. The differences of nuance verses directness that everybody has commented and concluded on misses a fundamental and critical point. John McCain is of a generation and upbringing where clear, even simple, fundamentals were what you acquired, grew up with and developed over your lifetime. Barrack Obama is a child of a different, more complex, more diverse age and upbringing. One perhaps more accurately reflective of the world we must find our way in. Yet neither is right or wrong in and of themselves. In fact you need to be sensitive to complexity but able to decide, act and carry thru on fundamental core principles. Which man bests suits the times is for you to judge, but if you're honest, hard to do because we need a balance of both.

In case the commenters completely missed the backstory here and, therefore, how it's likely to play out among different voter groups depending on what they're sensitive too. 

3. The initial questions were on character, specifically tell me about a major choice you had, a moral failure of yours and a touch, morally challenging decision. And who would be your go-to counselors. Barry's answers were of a thoughtful, civilized person. His advisers - his wife, grandmother and so forth. John-boy's were Gen. Petraeus, Meg Whitman and John Lewis, a great, black civil rights leader who almost died from it.

The most telling differences probably lay in the "tell us a tough choice". Frankly Barry's escapes me - some personal trivia. John-boy's was to stay in prison and continue to be tortured. Asked to answer the equivalent question on a tough leadership decision Barry answered, "when John and I worked together on campaign finance reform". McCain's was when I bucked the most respected Republican president of the time, Ronald Reagan, on his Lebanon decision because he was wrong; and even though it could have destroyed my career which was just starting.

Barry's a nice guy but John's beliefs come from having lived thru the fire and paid full ferry toll for them.

4. On the other hand John-boy's stump speech tirade that fundamental Islamic radicalism is the major crisis of our time was out of place and, after several thousand words of analysis, and much research, beyond plain wrong. It's merely one of many, not the most important though perhaps the most immediate. China and the BRICs, Russia's primitive revanchism, and a serious economic downturn are in fact more serious, urgent and consequential.

5. Speaking of which not much was said directly to the economics issues though it was dealt with in passing via taxes and "who's rich". Barry's answer was a policy wonks while John-boy's was wishy-washy, ill-thought and ill-expressed. In the larger scheme neither candidate has come up with comprehensive, workable or sensible economic policy proposals. This will be the single most important issue after January and neither seems to have a grasp.

6. As a final note, pro or con, all the commenters seem to feel that John-boy was in a home-court audience while Barry was dealing with a potentially unfriendly crowd. Perhaps - and while John caterred to their core interests he wasn't very expressive or insightful on matters of faith. That may be the private person. Barry on the other hand did get several rounds of heartfelt applause - these are not Oral Robert's "Moral Majority". More back to the "Social Gospel" of Christians doing good. And that should NOT be under-estimated. MUCH more importantly Barry displayed a comfortable familiarity with Scripture and a more than surface reading. He'd clearly read, understood, internalized and was acting on Scripture. And these people would recognize that. Yet another major point that no talking head or commentariat appartchik got.

 Bottomline - well to tell the truth I'm still not sure. As an old rock climber we used to have an interesting test. Would you let this guy hold the other end of the rope if you were on lead ? Understanding that the guy on lead had a many feet freefall if he slipped and your life depended on the guy on the safety rope being willing to take some serious pain to arrest you. John-boy would without a doubt. Barry...well I'm not sure.

On the other hand John-boy might damm well get you climbing directly up some damm face you had not business being on or didn't even need to climb. With Barry you could sit down and work thru the alternatives, pick the right climb, avoide it altogether and maybe go shoot some hoops and have a brew. 

Continue reading "Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some Real Answers" »

Posted by dblwyo at 07:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The latest Real Clear Politics poll has it like this: Barry 46.3, John-boy 43.7, Difference 2.6(B). Not much of a gap and one that's narrowing, even after the triumphal world tour. We'll have to see how things play out of course. Every "objective" indicator from dislike of Bush, to the state of the economy, to accelerating voter anxiety about the future to the successes in Iraq would favor Barry. What's going on here ? Well some of, if not most of it, is the dilemmas and lack of clarity we already discussed (Moral Clarity ? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities). And the cartoon, puts it in perspective. A caveat - while the cartoonist probably intended to take a shot at Barry IMHO it applies to John-boy as well, just differently.

My bottom line is this - we have a pretty clear grip on the major policy challenges, both here on the blog in some depth and analytical fashion and among the general public. Who may be less analytical but has a darn good grasp of what the real challenges are. Where the rub's turning into pain and how serious it is. What we don't have a clear grip on is what either candidate is proposing to do about it. Let me wrap a couple of pictures around that, just for fun, illustration and to riff off of.

Policy Directions

First, just as a reminder and to frame the discussion, here's how we see the major policy challenges. And our recommendations for strategic directions to follow to dealing with them - basic or fundamental principles if you will. Now the categories and descriptions got built up out of the way things work - reality as best we can judge - and the way people end up thinking about these things, even when it's not so crisp. The directional recommendations are what our analysis suggests offer the best and most workable objectives to pursue at a high level. But of course the devil's in the details.

Candidate Evaluation

So how're the candidates doing against the blueprint ? And how will/are people judging them ? The next picture we put together to try and frame those question from a couple of direction. As the last post discussed (Rational Voters, Public Choice, Economics and Futures) nobody's got the time or resources to do detailed evaluations on all the issues and alternatives, the candidates and their non-existent proposals. So we all tend to the next best thing - judging on Vision, Leadership and Policy Principles. More or less - and it's not a bad way to go. If you combine that list with the policy principles blueprint you might end up with something like this. And apply it to the two candidates you might end up with the two-color triangles. Which aren't entirely fair but heh, what'd you expect for free graphics. But aren't entirely inaccurate either - Barry is a lot stronger on the Vision thing but sure seems to fade out fast on anything below that. On the other hand John-boy gets to down to brass tacks on a few things where he's comfortable (his paint scheme should have been spottier for sure) but sure fades fast when trying to explain how he sees it all tying together. If Barry is running on eloquence John-boy's running on true-grit and track record and both might just be running on empty.

As Good As It Gets ??? Where's Ronnie When You Need Him ?

That's a complaint, not a diagnosis and not a treatment for sure but it may be as good as it gets. Going back to the "Policy Principles" chart we're in a world where there are major structural changes in every category. It's a brave new, multi-polar world where peace and love haven't broken out but there are major rising powers who need to be incorporated constructively into some new system. Meanwhile we're experiencing major structural shifts in the economy which is making people legitimately anxious about future growth prospects. And it's also leading to major pressures on society that are making people less comfortable with the old American verities. The only good news IOHO is that the culture wars have been back-burnered as the seriousness of these challenges mount up. The last time we faced a range and depth of problems this severe was in 1980 when we had an imploding economy, a failing foreign policy that was losing the Cold War and a mounting backlash against the failed social engineering of the '60s and the associated libertinism attacking our core historic values. And Ronnie managed to step forward, calm everybody down by offering a vision for the future and specific action plans that did address many of these problems. In a small way he shared Lincoln's abilities in finding simple explanations for complex problems and converting them into convincing stories. But also for the record he was badly wrong about much of his economics and we're still living with the consequences. On the other hand there was a lot he was right about; for example he and Volcker broke the back of inflation and restored a growing economy though supply-side turned out to be voodoo economics indeed.

In other words he had a VOICE - he could tell us straight out what he thought was going on and what we ought to do about it, in a way we could understand and find convincing...or not.

 Voice and Leadership

And therein lies the problem - neither of the candidates has found their VOICES as yet. They haven't come up with simple, clear and compelling explanations of who they are, what they stand for, what they think we should do and how we should go about. That's it in a nutshell.

But let's set the record straight. The scope and seriousness of the problems we face now are not anything like the ones Reagan faced and those were nothing in comparison to what we faced at prior major turning points in the history of the Republic. So let's everyone get a grip - we got thru those. Maybe not with style and grace but overall not ineffectively either. We'll muddle thru these somehow as well - if nothing else by definition. The question then becomes will we like the outcome ?

Part of the problem is that for a long time politicians have been successful telling us what the think we want to hear because we haven't insisted on hearing painful truths. Well the fact of the matter is that the world is what it is and we're in a better position, now and for decades than almost any other entity. But there are serious challenges. The one of most concern is the economy and there aren't any magic answers, there especially. Most of the problems we face with regard to the Economy, and the associated problems with Energy and Education are the result of deep structural flaws that have been accumulating for decades. They are addressable....just not quickly, easily or cheaply. So ?

The bottomline of the bottomlines is that the central challenge is the short- and long-term economic issues. And neither candidate has demonstrated any comfort, competence or command there. Despite, at least in Barry's case, having as fine a composite team of business leaders and economists at his disposal as any I've ever known to be assembled. And John-boy's on the whole ain't to bad either. But that's in a nutshell - they need to find their VOICES on the Economy and we're running out of time.

And with only a little over three months left this may indeed be as good as it gets. 

Continue reading "Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World" »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Well "Brian", I mean Barry, has had his triumphal tour of Jeruslem and points around and between, at least according to some of the coverage. What's rapidly becoming street mythology. And Johnboy was so lonely and abandoned.It's probably worth your while to skim the excerpted readings, including the URLs to a very wide range of articles, from a wide range of source. You might be rather surprised - even the Der Spiegel reporter had some notes of hesitancy while the various Brits were properly applauding as well-spoken PR gesture but spen their last paras on "so what". Listened to a panel on Rose last night and that was essentially there conclusion as well.

1) those who haven't heard him before but were enchanted are potentially enamored of his vision,

2) those who have heard him repeatedly repeat, "where's the beef", and

3) McCain remains within reach. Beyond that the careful control of the message, the suppresion of tough press questioning, the posturing (as several commentators note, including several of the so-called liberal, biased media - e.g. Andrea Mitchell) isn't encouraging.

1) Americans still don't have a grip on who or what he is while they are more comfortable with Johnboy,

2) Barry will have to come out form behind his shell and show us who he truly his - something he's incredibly unconfortable with,

3) real substance needs to be forthcoming,

4) in his background he's demonstrated he's an inquiring mind ready to listen carefully to anyone of substance, to be nuanced and hard-headed/handed when he percieves it as necessary,

5) his unwillingness to change his mind as the result of that listening and a pronounced difficulty in admitting he's wrong (the Surge being the primary example) and

6) his total reliance on the "brave new world" euporia of the early '90s instead of translating that into realpolitik. At least in his speechifying.

Continue reading "Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef" »

Posted by dblwyo at 01:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I don't know about you but so far this state of the campaign has me greatly puzzled trying to establish clarity and a deeper of understanding of what the candidates stand for and what they intend to do. In fact this has been in some ways the most difficult post to write in a long time because no clear position is gelling out in my mind. Judging from the composite potpourri of political cartoons that dilemma is rather widely shared - insofar as political cartoonists typically capture the attitudes of some segment of the population. You can parse out and de-construct each of the cartoons for yourselves but IMHO each has an element of truth and some error. It seems to us that indeed each is struggling to migrate centerward, has evolved their positions somewhat, taken some heat for it (particularly Barry) and Johnboy ain't Ford nor Barry Peanut. Though given that choice between a well-meaning, honest and reasonably competent leader who restored some confidence in our government as opposed to the 2nd worst US President of the 20thC that would be a clear choice. The best summary of how things are going is this recent Rose interview with two smart and informed political commentators: A conversation with Chuck Todd and Mark Halperin.Both of whom while providing insight basically seem to share our "confusions". Highly recommended. As independent check btw notice that Barry's vast post-primary lead has largely disappeared and the two candidates are, to some extent, running neck and neck. Check out the RealClear Politics composite of recent polls.

Where We're At ? 

So what's going on here ? And what did we expect or what would we like to see. After the break there's a decent collection stretching over the last two weeks of the more useful and/or thoughtful pieces talking about the candidates worldviews and how they're evolving as candidates. There's also a collection of prior posts that contains a pretty complete assessment of the key policy issues, the dynamics of the campaign and what we need them to be addressing, instead of what they aren't addressing. There's good news and bad news in all this btw - the good news is that so far each candidate has by and large conducted himself as a gentleman with nothing like the Democratic primary and a far cry from the '00 and '04 partisan snakepits. And they have migrated toward a constructive and workable center. This campaign has been described by several people as the most important since FDR's first. That's nonsense but makes good headlines. It is the most serious since 1980 however in the scope and depth of the issues facing us.

What We Need

A friend recently quoted Bill Bennett's judgement of McCain as a person who has moral clarity - that is he knows what he stands for and what decisions his likely to make. Johnboy, in our opinion, is an exemplary individual. But he's not running for individual - he's running for President. And what he and Barry both owe us is more than "moral clarity" - we have to trust him to represent us and make, on balance, the best decisions of which they're capable for our collective best interests. Stop and think about that for a minute - how will you reach your decision regarding either candidate.

It seems to us that positions are only a part of it but we can't dig thru each major policy area in detail let alone work it thru in the hurly-burly of a campaign. We do need some indication of where they stand and how they'll proceed. Which we're not getting. There's actually been little of substance, the differences aren't that particularly vast with regard to prior elections (an assertion which we walk thru in some careful detail in the prior posts listed after the break) and what we've seen is a mish-mash of point positions. Not any over-arching themes for the major policy challenges we face. What would be nice to see is for each candidate to tell us what their general philosophy of government is, how they see it playing out domestically, economically and internationally and give us some idea of what direction they think they'd work in for those areas.

But that's still not likely to be how we evaluate them though it'd be a nice supplement. No we'll look at them and decide based on our judgement of their character, leadership and their abilities to represent our views on what should be done. And that jury is out as well. The graphic is my last attempt to do something like for the '04 election - as you can my take on each candidate wasn't particularly favorable. And also as you can see it's for the last election since the process of thinking it through for this one is still early. But it's an interesting checklist and blueprint to work from. Agree or disagree but building something like it isn't a bad way to get started. At the end of the day last time around we had a C/C+ candidate running against a D/D+ one. This time we've got a couple of decent B-students in the game. That's progress - now if only we get lucky and don't need A-students this'll work out. So what's your opinion ? Have you thought about it or just made a snap judgement ? Take a gander at the excerpts and the prior posts and cycle back and see if your answer remains the same.

Continue reading "Moral Clarity ? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities" »

Posted by dblwyo at 08:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

We seem to be in a bit of a lull while the candidates catch their breaths, maybe rest a tad, re-structure their organizations and re-positions themselves for the general election. That calm is probably very deceptive and underneath the surface the duck's feet are paddling furiously indeed. However there are two giant changes coming, willy-nilly, whether we want them to or not. And they should represent cusp points in the tone, tenor and direction of the campaign.

The first is a shift from matters of style and maneuver to including more matters of substance and policy. Now that's not to be too "Pollyanish" about it all - as we've said we've already gotten quite a bit of improvement in this election in ways that really matter to us. And at the same time it's still an election where style and sound-bytes will matter, as they always do. The extent to which we shift will depend, in part, on the voters. Are we going to ask the hard questions or be satisfied with the easy and good-sounding answers ? There's some evidence the the number and seriousness of our challenges is indeed forcing some shift. Of course in the long-run there are two key things to bear in mind. These issues are substantive, they're hear to stay and we'll have to face them one way or another. And, no matter who wins, the real world has rhythms, patterns and directions of its' own - no matter what the rhetoric US Foreign Policy is not likely to shift all that much other than in cosmetics. The graphics is our proposed template for these matters of substance from re-newing key general principles to structural re-engineering of the governance mechanisms to key policy clusters. Consider it a proposed architecture for the debates on policy as well as a representation of our best analysis of realities and resolutions.

The second big shift coming is generational. About every 20+ years there is a major shift in political leadership as one generation succeeds another. In 1960 JFK succeeded DDE as the baton was passed to the youngsters of the "Greatest Generation" from their elders. When Slick Willy took over from Bush41 it was another generational shift from the "Greatest" to the Boomers - and a massive attitudinal shift as well. Stop and think about what you think it was - a worthy topic of exploration. I'd suggest it was a shift from struggle, duty, obligation and "no free lunch" to the beneficiaries of that effort who were more concerned about "actualization", self/me and less focused on the hard work needed to get there. And that's not to pick on either posture, at least entirely. The attitudes are as much a product of the environment as the reverse and are more or less appropriate for them. We did, IMHO, loose sight of what brought us to that pleasant state of being able to focus on our navels and have spent the last several years being reminded.

Whoever wins this election it is a generational shift again - like we said...these issues will be with us for decades. It's not given to us to avoid them, only how we deal with them. John-boy stands for the last, and in some ways, the best of the Boomer generation. A genuine war hero, a man of integrity and substance and a demonstrated maverick who has followed his own thinking and the evidence on most matters of substance. Barry, aside from both his eloquence and his ability to put the challenges of the time in new and insightful way, is less well known. But appears to also be a man grounded in his own self. to know what he believes and why and to have both a good idea of where he wants to take us and what it'll take to get there. He's certainly shown a solid predilection behind the scenes for picking good people, seeking out the best advice and advisers, running a well thought out organization and inventing new ways of doing things. All to the good.

This campaign so far has confounded the pundits right and left because the old shibboleths of which issue works for which voter group in which state keep getting over-turned. And now that we have the two most atypical, for their parties, candidates whatever remains of the old thinking will continue to be challenged. Between the return of serious issues from the frivolities of the last two decades and the aftermath and these changes in the polity we are facing an inescapable cusp point. Good - it's about time.

IMHO Barry needs to do three things: 1) translate his future vision into more specific operating principles - note, not specifics, just guidelines so we can better evaluate him on the big issues. Then 2) convince more voters that while he's not one of them he gets them. And 3) absorb, not just listen to advice, a more realistic view of what a tough and ugly world it is. Conversely John-Boy needs to give us something to hang our hats on - that is he needs to explain what the over-arching vision of his candidacy is. In my mind it's not blind change for changes sake to make us feel good. It is to reform and re-structure those things that aren't working well - change for progress and performance, based on the best of the past but dealing with the challenges of the future.

At the end of the day the accompanying graphic is my proposed set of "Fundamental Principles" that represent my suggestions for how to accomplish these ends - marrying matters of communication, leadership, style, substance and specifics into a set of principles and policies best suited for the times as I see them. Agree or not - and please feel free - it's not a bad checklist to use to evaluate the candidates. More specifically here are the five cusp point policies that wrap things together and you should use to judge the candidates.

1. Economy - we're facing the most serious economic challenges we've faced since 1980 and need regulatory reform, stimulus and long-term investments to jump-start growth.

2. Energy - it's time for a concerted national effort in a multi-decade long migration to different energy sources. Which would also help out the Economy.

3. Middle East - Iraq is still a challenge and needs care and attention but a stable ME is the sine qua non of holding the world system and our economy together.

4. Education - the other side of the coin of creating new sources of economic growth is making sure our populace is qualified, which it's not. And the major obstacle for a new education are the existing institutional infrastructures which place private interests ahead of innovation, adaptation and the public interest.

5. Regulatory Reform - we actually understand Foreign/Security Policy and the Economy pretty well and have the mechanisms fairly well developed to accomplish what we want. Our strugglies with Social Policy are really a new thing in human history - only since the the 1960's has any society attempted to re-engineer itself like this. The intent was good but the mechanisms failed us. We need new ones. 

Continue reading "Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal" »

Posted by dblwyo at 08:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Well they finally settled that...at long last. And now we can get to the real campaign, right ? Not so fast - let's stop and think about several of the things in this little pause before the really big storm begins anew. We should be celebrating this election on many...many fronts. Both for how unusual it it, the candidates who have survived, the issues that have come center-stage and the way the campaign has been conducted so far. And the paths we've followed to get here. This has been a wonderful, change-making Presidential Campaign - and not just for the political theater junkies but for those few of us who are more entertained and focused on matters of substance. Not necessarily in order consider:

1. The Democrats just nominated a black man for President and he beat a white women - and despite a lot of minor mud-slinging - on the whole the focus was more on issues and qualifications. A change that many people thought they'd never see in their lifetimes. I consider it a great miracle that race and gender were not more important.

2. Barry pulled off a "miracle" of sorts thru hard work, skill, intelligence, superb campaign work and innovative as well as discipline. He ran a great campaign. And if he wins and administers the office as well as he built a major startup business, alledgedly not having the skills or experience, he'd do well. And the meme running around is that Hillary was the victim of mis-step after mis-step. And just wouldn't quite - well the street mythology is as captured by the opening cartoon is just that. Both sides fought a hard, skilled campaign and the differences between two skilled adversaries were on the margins. For military history buffs it's like reading about the vast differences in German vs American resources and tactics in WW2 and how huge they were; and then reading the casualty figures and realizing we're talking about minor % gaps.

3. On the other side of the hill John-boy was given up for dead a long-time ago and was the least promising of the Republican candidates in terms of getting the party's base voter support. At the end of the day the most centrist, pragmatic, straight-forward and honest of them triumphed. By being himself.

4. Which is another way of saying this election is indeed about change because at the end of the day it is the non-traditional candidates who are NOT focused on business as usual we're going to choose between. We've put the indulgences of the 90s when we let our apparent prosperities seduce us into playing around with idiot value questions and squandering our windows to fix serious on-coming issues close. There are NO substantive policy issues we're facing that haven't been on the table since the early '90s. It's just now that the Costs of neglect so clearly exceed the Benefits of "head-in-the-sand" politiking that once again we're becoming "serious people for serious times". Hallelujah.

5. And that choice is going to be fought out where it should be - on the key strategic issues and in the centroid of the polity. Stop and think not just how close Billary and Barry were on key issues but actually how close on some Barry is to John-boy. And then stop to think about the pragmatics of office. As we pointed out in the prior post on Iran once the rhetoric goes to bed the realities are going to be much different. And ditto for Iraq - one which McCain has admitted we need to draw down our presence after establishing stability, security and prosperity.And where Barry has admitted we need to establish ....before we withdraw in a timely fashion based on the facts on the ground.

6. And did you ever think you'd see a Rep. candidate with a national health plan ? Or both, in addition to the President, talking about market re-regulation ? Or agreeing with his opponent on Global Warming and Immigration despite his own party. Both issues we might remind you that either had or now have the President's support. Maybe I'm a simple-minded optimist who just is too easily swayed by pretty pictures but it seems to me we're having our arguments about the rights things.

• What are the key policies we want to pursue ?
• And what's the best mechanism for going after them ?

Continue reading "Whew, That's Over: Let the Games Begin...Again !" »

Posted by dblwyo at 08:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's time for an update and a refresh on where we're at in the Presidential campaign, what some of the likely consequences are and some of the deeper changes that are beginning to emerge. Aside from the obvious ones of course :). Like having a Black Man, a Women and a Moderate Republican as the leading contenders. Boy that almost sounds like the opening line to a joke...instead of the plain unvarnished truth. Yet it reflects some of those deeper changes that are going on. We've made that argument a time or three before (see the prior posts at the end please) but just to refresh you memories and my argument let's put up the pivot chart again.

Basically we've argued that the parties and politicians had retreated toward the extremes under ideological pressures and because they could. They could because we coasted thru the '90s on puerile partisanship but in the process focused on narrow special issues, e.g. "Values" as a euphemism for forcing others to comply with your views about behavior. We could afford to do that because the real issues were under control. That is the world was safe for capitalist excess after the fall of the Soviet Union, the economy was in great shape and getting better in every way and we'd fix our minor social problems like Social Security, Education and Healthcare by and by. Well we've resolve all those issues except the end result has been, shall we say, non-positive in all cases. And the further result is that first the American people are moving toward the middle - seeking non-partisan and workable approaches to serious challenges. And they're bringing the politicians with them. And in the process the early policy discussion have even been more focused on what's sensible, workable and useful as opposed to being ideological shibboleths. As Dr. Johnson pointed out many years ago the prospect of a good hanging, especially when it's your own, tends to focus you down on essentials.

All of which you can see reflected in the readings excerpts which are grouped into assessments of its' strategic character - that is big picture demographics, trends and attitude shifts. Followed by reports from the frontlines of the Campaign. And, finally, two widely separated pundits join us at last in celebrating the migration to the middle. One is Jerry Seib of the WSJ and the other is the US political correspondent for the Financial Times. Both of whom are sharp, experienced, and since they agree with us, insightful.

On the "structural front" what we're finally seeing is the basic ecology of American politics evolve beyond the prisons of the last two decades. Politics at the end of the day is local so candidates have to appeal to what local demographics require. But the nature of local and its' characteristics are changing. We're finally seeing the emergence of what we'd like to think of as more modern, or at least forward-looking, foundational characteristics. For example a growing Biracial politics in the South - Hallelujah !! And the Evangelical community experiencing it's own internal backlash against excessive politicking and political manipulation by right-wing leaders and a growing concern with the real fundamentals of the Christian message.

Not least of the news is that the Democratic contest is in the process of winding down since Hillary lost badly in NC and only eee...eked out a slim victory in Indiana. Which is seeing a shift on Barry's part toward the general election. The coverage of the strengths and weaknesses of their respective campaigns is worth thinking about. Now we'll see if the rifts in the Dems can be repaired. Frankly we don't consider them deep or bad and view this campaign as a lot more benign than previous ones, even in recent history. If you go back to earlier American history this is a 2 on a 1-10 scale for ugliness. And as we said before given what we've found out about the candidates, the testing of their characters (the 60lb pack test) and the tabling of some serious initiatives instead of frivolous ideologies we consider we've already won. 

But start here....the Economist's cartoonist perfectly captures much of this election IOHO...

Economist Kal Debate Cartoon: This is a great set of political cartoons that also captures the candidates and the issues extremely well.

Continue reading "Campaign, Candidates & Consequences: the Emerging Race for the Middle" »

Posted by dblwyo at 02:52 PM | Permalink

Well, well, well....apparantly the recent debate is more important for the questions asked than for the candidates and/or real issues. Which means, as they say out West, we're gettin' down to the nut-cuttin' (ask a friend who's ranched for an explantion...this is a family blog). Actually there's a lot more going on and we're starting to really see the real people behind the personnas. IOHO there's three things one ought to bear in mind when contemplating all this agita: 1) the 60-lb pack test, 2) how people see things (quick answer they don't they see what they want) and 3) the Centricities of this campaign (not eccentricities mind you but they're plenty of those too).

1) 60lb Pack Test - when the Special Forces is evaluating candidates for selection they send them into a grueling, sustained and exhausting testing process designed to break them down and find out if they can perform under pressures. Part of this of course is that nothing else but combat is that stressful. What they're really looking for, after they've run somebody in the ground, froze off their assess, starved them, made them work to exhaustion is somebody who's still decisive, clear-headed, able to make the most serious decisions under the worst conditions and continues to support their team ahead of themselves. Gee it almost sounds as if we should run the candidates thru...oh I forgot...we are. It's called primaries. A friend of mine had an old-fashioned suggestion for deciding to get married...put a 60lb pack on the other and spend a week or so hiking in the high mountains. If you got along then you'd probably weather the normal run of storms. Well we're seeing the 60lb pack test applied to the candidates and the results aren't pretty. Both Billary and Barry are getting testy and punchdrunk it would seem.

2) See What You Want - there's been a firestorm of controversy over the questions as being too hostile, not issued-centerred enough, etc. etc. Nonsense - challenging Barry on his attitudes is exactly the point. We elect people who we think can to their best to represent both our interests and the overall, balanced interests of the nation as a whole. And don't kid yourself - people vote their own balance between self and broad interest when it gets down to. The whole bitter thing, if you dig into, is a fair test. Plus he's skated thru so far without any serious challenges. Interesting to see how he reacts. And so far he doesn't seem to be doing particularly well. I well remember supporting Bradley in his first campaign and then giving up as the fabled warrior retreated to Shibboleths and Special Interests as he scrambled for traction. Sad. Push come to shove the great expositor seems to be doing the same thing. But you're either for 'im or agin 'im on this. Nicholas Kristoff has a great column on how different people look at the same movie, report or debate and come to different conclusions by ignoring what doesn't agree with their believes.

3) Centricity - this really needs a long post of its' own but a friend recently challenged my assertion that we (I)'ve already won in this election because all the candidates have converged on the middle. Briefly cast your mind back to the profound differnces in '92 or '80 ? Or '60 for that matter when there were huge differences on direction and policy. The reason that Bush and Gore were so close was not because we're a divided country but because we'd converged on a rough consensus and were really debating how to go about it. Just in this campaign you see the more extreme candidates have fallen out, extreme being a relative term. Remember Dean last time ?

So at the end of the day we've got a real horse race. In fact McCain has not only revived his own fortunes but those of the Republicans. Partly his own doing but little to do with the prolonged primary conflicts, though some. No...what's going on here is that everybody's looking at real issues. Or was until this debate. McCain the Rep. had come up with serious, thoughtful and decent sounding proposal on Healthcare of all things. And when you look at the intent the three are pretty close. The differences lie in mechanism. Billary's still in the old biggov, bigspend, mantra and pretending that bigtaxes won't go with it. Barry's in nearly an identical policy position but favored a more mixed set of market and gov't means to make them happen. When you look at economic policies the three have almost identical diagnosis on the table. Fairly similar treatment recommendations. And what they're largely debating are the mix of surgey, drugs and therapy, i.e. exactly how to go 'bout it.

Sadly the one fly in the ointment of all this is that in his exhaustion and under serious questioning for the first time Barry reverted where most revert at the end of selection - back to their most basic reflexes. Which in his case appear to be pretty leftish liberal. Sad to see in the True Prophet of the 3rd Way forward. 

Continue reading "Now We've Got a Horse Race: Debating the Debates & 60lb Pack Tests" »

Posted by dblwyo at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This has been an interesting and unusual campaign which has NOT, repeat, not gone on too long IMHO. The thing about a long-drawn-out, bruising, tiring and painful campaign is that it's still nothing like a year, or probably even a month, in the office. We're in the process of letting everybody cowboy up and boy, are things we're finding out interesting. So we'll take a quick pass at framing it and after the break you'll find a whole bunch of readings for your skimming pleasure.

While I haven't come to any conclusions as yet I do have certain leanings, which change from time-to-time but no oftener than weekly, so far. Let me share some of my "findings" with you and base them on the chart at right. To set the table, no matter what else you think is going on, we need to remember a couple of critical things. First off these are all bright, talented, hard-working people who do seem to have the best interests of the country at heart. We'd all like Lincoln to be running but we not only don't have that choice but he sure lost a lot before the one that really counted.

My bottomlines, such as they are, are this. Barry is the candidate I'd like to vote for because my assessments tell me we need a new, centrist, 3rd way forward to cope with all the huge structural changes coming. McCain is the candidate I'm likely to vote for because being President requires being able to ride the tiger, have a broad understanding of foreign affairs and national security, economics and social policy. As for Hillary she's a fine senator but shares her husband's character flaws of being willing to win at almost any cost and putting her own interests ahead of the balance of broader interests. Those quiksums are based on the chart, watching the polls for years and the candidates as well.

It's a busy little chart and let's hope we have a chance to take it apart and dig into sometime but the suggestion here is at least two fold, well actually three, if you'd like to understand politics and policy in this day and age. First off the electorate has always been centrist though that moves over time. This time moreso than ever as dissatisfaction with the parties, politicians and policies is reaching justified terminal dissatisfaction. Mostly because the two parties have been retreating to their own bases and pursuing more ideological agendas. The end result of that is a vast gap between where the parties are at, where most of us are at and the infamous 50% + .01 strategy.

On the other hand there are certain things we need to survive and prosper in the world: a strong national defense because it's an ugly place and a well-executed foreign policy that respects all legitimate and sincere players and works to suppress the ill-intended. That's been sound national policy since the days of the Sumerian Empire. Next is a sound and balanced economic policy were we don't think stuff grows for free but also recognized gov't is a necessary framework for free markets. Lo and behold instead of voodoo economics vs tax & spend 'til we collapse everybody's converged on that more than we have collectively in 40-50 years. Will miracles never cease ? Finally we don't want to let our citizens freeze in the dark while they're dying of preventable diseases. Moreover the better education the population and the more people playing in the game as contributors, setting aside such crass and mundane issues as ethics or morality, the better off we all are. It's called a non-zero sum game or better...focus on growing the pie first and then slicing it. A smaller share of a much bigger pie is better than the other way around.

UPDATE: the Economist just published a poll of voters opinions about the candidates capacities to manage critical issues. Oddly enough the structure of issues and the evaluation bears some passing resemblences to mine; which is either very scary or very encouraging :) ! 

Continue reading "Campaigns, Candidates & Characteristics: Slings and Arrows, Oh My !" »

Posted by dblwyo at 01:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well the slugfest continues and gets pretty ugly but Barrack and Billary continue to be neck and neck. And it looks like it'll go on thru the Convention. Which, contrary to the recieved wisdom, isn't necessarily all a bad thing. First off it's not really giving McCain that big a leg up particularly since he's not running. In fact instead of lying low and doing prep work now would be a great time for him get a multi-month jump on the real campaign by coming out with serious policy proposals on education, healthcare and the economy. C'est la guerre. Second off we could be finding out both what the two Dimowhackic candidates stand for and what their policies might be. UNFORTUNATELY what we're getting is an increasingly ugly bar fight by two unskilled fighters who also think getting down in the mud is the way to go. Actually it's not that bad...yet.

Needless to say the cartoon at right - from a sample of 15-20 of the things, pretty well sumarizes the overall impression AND the level this is being discussed at. Except on Fox News of course where the descent into pre-Jurassic darwinian swamps is setting new lows. Now how many people actually listened to Obama's speech ? I consider it one of the great political speeches of our generation except for the minor detail that nobody appears to be paying attention. First off he refused to back away from his years long association with the Rev. bigmouth. Which if nothing else shows strong character. Second off he completely disavowed the Rev's statements while acknowledging their long-standing friendship. Taken all together that spells real character in my book.

But third, most importantly and completely ignored, the bulk and heart of the speech was as balanced, honest, look-em-in-the-eye look at Rascism in this country as I've read. Now to be fair here you need to understand I'm a very biased and bigoted person and highly discriminatory to boot. I don't care what your race, religion or politics nor if you're 3' tall with green spots and purple fronds. What I do care about is are you competent, honest, keep your word and deliver a fair day's work for a fair day's pay. So please bear in mind that I'm a victim of my terrible childhood upbringing out in Cowboy Country. Though not one myself.

Continue reading "WRFest 23Mar08(Politics): Gimme that Ol Time Religion ?" »

Posted by dblwyo at 08:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well Hillary clawed back from the apparnt abyss of 11 Obama victories in a row last week with victories in Ohio and Texas. Unfortunately she's not ahead in popular votes or the delegate count. So despite staying alive in this election, barely, she's not managed to establish a resounding recovery. If anything the Democrats are establishing themselves, yet again, as opening the door wide for a Republican return to power. Yet, though there are substantive differences among the three candidates they all converge more on the center in this campaign than at any time in several. In fact when you did thru the positions a bit Barrack and Hillary's positions are nearly identical. The primary differences being in tone & vision and in mechanism. Hillary's still got that old-time religion of the '60s New Liberalism, big government is THE answer. And the taxes and bureaucracies that go with it. Obama seems to share her policy goals but is much more open to alternative mechanisms, recognizes the good that market-oriented policies do and is much less doctrinaire. A bit of progress IMHO.

This interesting election will continue to play out for some time. I'm just waiting for Obama to offer her the VP slot. One has to take the unsubtle hints both she and Bill dropped as both a manuver and a major sign of weakness. 

One thing that's given credit for her recovery, other than an SNL appearance, is her appeal to populism and anti-trade rhetoric. Another is her "3 A.M. Phone Call". Given that the Clintons (takng her at her word that she was a major influence on policy during her husband's administration) were largely reponsible for the deterioration of US foreign policy and national security in the '90s that strikes me as amusing at best. And more accurately disingenous and deceptive. The book to read is Halberstam's War in a Time of Peace: Bush, Clinton, and the Generals. In it you'll find a foreign policy and national security policy sufferring from willful neglect on the grounds that we didn't have to worry about all that anymore. The other major Clinto proactive policy initiative was the Healthcare shambles, with a program who's scope, bureaucratic encumbrances, and size resemble her current proposals by all means let her claim that experience. Let's hold the referendum on Bill's presidency that never got held. And the resulting postponement until now of the serious re-construction of things like Social Security, Healthcare, Medicaire, etc. etc. By all means let's judge her on her experience ! :)

Continue reading "WRFest 9Mar08(US Politics): She's Back...." »

Posted by dblwyo at 07:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well as we used to say out west, generally around branding time, we're getting down to the nxx-cutting. In the last few weeks we've sorted the candidates down and out, Obama in particular has made a spectacular race of it and now appears to be pulling ahead of Clinton a bit. Tonight's debate...well what do you think ? In that format which favors hard-bitten sound bites it's hard to dig a little deeper into the issues.

At this point personalities and character are still and will be vital and important but we thought it was time to move on to the other side of the house. So to set the stage for our serious inquiries let us turn to the Onion News Network and their in-depth analysis of the most important and critical issues facing us to day.

VIDEO WATCHING PAUSE

Continue reading "Gettin Down to the Nxx-cuttin: Issues, Choice, Consequences and BS Quotients" »

Posted by dblwyo at 03:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Looking back over the immediate prior posts there's a bunch of political stuff and a bunch of policy stuff, particularly economics. All in all not surprising given the time of year. Instead of waiting for the weekend there was so much, and some of it key, that we broke it up as things went along and to call it out. In some ways the tide is now racing in Obama's direction instead of Hillary strolling to her coronation. In the process we're now finding out who she is and what she really wants to stand for. Contrawise we're finding out more about Obama's policy positions.

On the whole, and again we're not talking about normal folks here or even the best in your local neighborhood, these are all exceptional folks even though we talk about them like we were critiquing the local school board. But then again, that's the game. So, on the whole, the Hillary I'm seeing is pretty much the one I expected - brittle, hard, disciplined,hard-working, no vision and business as usual. More importantly our suspicions that she wants to be President not because she has things to get done but because she just wants the job is scary. I don't mind ambition as it takes some to get this job - but the shape of it is important.

Continue reading "WRFest 16Feb08(Politics): Turning Tides and Choices" »

Posted by dblwyo at 06:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Back in the saddle again - here we go once more in harm's way (alt. version). On my other blog just posted a plug for a friends blog and it turned into a long riff on macroecon, business cycles and why it matters (can you spell social collapse). Given that all our choices are conditioned by the state of the economy, that most of the issues facing us in this election have their roots in policy failures reaching back to the '60s and our prosperity in the '90s was the other side of the coin you might be interested. The excerpt and link are below the line.

Giving ourselves a break today and taking care of chores and errands we had lunch at our favorite little local family resteraunt where business wasn't as good as it might be. Partly because of the weather, partly because of the snowbirds who're south right now but largely because of the impacts of energy, et.al. on people's spending money. In two hours we had the same conversation at the tobbaconist, the video store, the barber AND the wine shop !

If you don't think the next President is going to be faced with a major economics challenge which is, now, inescapably painful for all of us then you are sadly mistaken.

Continue reading "Understanding Economics: Introduction to Macroeconomics & Businss Cycles" »

Posted by dblwyo at 11:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well it looks like we're sorting down to the candidates and the issues. And the fight is getting pretty serious. On the Democratic side Obama has some major wins in recent primaries but the real test will be in Texas and Ohio. Similarly McCain is winning primaries as well and, if you believe the headlines, pulling away. As usual when you look under the covers there's more to the numbers and Huckabee is staying in the fight.

What we're seeing in both contests is rather what one would expect from our model of voter distribution - that is the electorate is looking for a centrist, pragmatic candidate while the Faithful on either side are holding out for their respective agendii. NOW in our humble opinion that's the real issue in this campaign. Will we continue to see a politics based on the relative extremes or will we have a campaign that addresses the real issues we face. Which are more challenging than anything we've seen since 1980.

Continue reading "Fights, Disses and Issues: Onward to Camelot ?" »

Posted by dblwyo at 09:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It's probably about time we were an equal opportunity disser and poked a little fun and a little harm at the Rips, the far-fight conservatives and John McCain. Fortunately we don't have to look to far for the fun as the nation's political cartoonists again stepped into the breach.

Now, political cartoons don't work if there's not an element of truth for them to riff on - whoever's truth that might be. Notice that while the set of Hillary cartoons were all about her these McCain cartoon are none about him. Rather they're about somebody else's reactions !

I wonder if the folks who're the subject of the cartoons would recognize themselves ? Not only to appreciate the humor and laugh but to realize where they stand in the spectrum of politics and in the regard of the electorate.

A couple of serious points after you've stopped chuckling about John-Boy vs the Cons. First, Hillary and Barrack may still be wrestling for the Dem. nomination but the MSM is discovering that the Rep. are even worse split under the covers of McCain's lead than they are. By a large margin.

Second, run these posts in your head back by the spectrum of politics post (Super Tues.: Barrack & Billary "Tied", John-Boy in Front ?). We'll pick up the idea later but it seems to still be holding togther pretty well indeed.

Continue reading "John-Boy Wrestles the Swamp Monster:McCain & the Right" »

Posted by dblwyo at 06:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well we just finished amusing ourselves with a set of political cartoons at Billary's expense. Let's hope she's laughing with us. In a more serious earlier post we argued that there are three things that voters look for in a President - never getting what they want of course but settling for the best tradeoffs they can get. The three were: 1) Vision & Leadership, 2) Character (Integrity & Values) and 3) Workable Policies/Positions. Let's focus now on the Character question and appeal to that noted doyen of American politics Pres. Andrew Shephard - who as much as anyone captures or represents what we want in a President. (In fact somebody once described the movie "American President" as depicting who we wished we'd gotten instead of what we did get - thereby proving my point):

President Shephard: For the last couple of months, Senator Rumson has suggested that being president of this country was, to a certain extent, about character, and although I have not been willing to engage in his attacks on me, I've been here three years and three days, and I can tell you without hesitation: Being President of this country is entirely about character. We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections.

Continue reading "Billary Goes Back to Washington (II): It's All About Character" »

Posted by dblwyo at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well things are beginning to sort down rapidly in these primaries. Not least of the Super Tues results is that Billary may have been weakened. As we pointed out in a prior post (And Then there Were...Two: Vision ? Leadership ? Politics !) on digging underneath the numbers their results were strong in the traditional Dimowackic strongholds but when you look beneath the surface Obama was closer than the surface would indicate. We'll pick up that theme more in a later post but to give all this a little perspective we thought we'd look back on how the political cartoonists have seen her campaign with a sampling of our collection to date. If nothing else, besides being pretty pointed, they're very funny. And have that painfully cutting edge of a true ring to them as well.

The composite at right, if you've been following along, is a sampling from the early days to last summer or so.

Hillary's been the presumptive Democratic candidate for the last several years but it's been a long, rocky road that's not gone as predicted. Largely due to Obama and her own mistakes. But we certainly went thru a period when it was Hillary and the Six Dwarves, at least at first.

I believe they call that "entitlement"; or the annointing of the Queen. An attitude that, again IMHO, just wafted off the campaign. And in fact a lot of her dark side strikes us an outraged sense of entitlement. After all the Dwarves were perfectly free to challenge her. That was politics and a game she played better, had more money, a better machine, etc. etc. After all it was her turn, right ? :)

And then all of sudden it got down and dirty - not in a real dirt sense but she was being legitimately challenged. First by Edwards who, whatever else one may think, forced some key issues onto the national agenda and got all the candidates to have to recognize them, particularly Healthcare. And then there was Barrack who was doing the Vision thing - which she seems constitutionally incapable off. Talk about failing to develop a competitive response !

My memory is that she didn't much care for that. How 'bout yours ? Of course she likes it even less now but that's the way the game is played; or should be. 

Continue reading "Billary Goes Back to Washington (I): a Cartoon Collection" »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Earlier we put up several posts on some small aspects of the economy and the elections as well as walked thru the comparison of this election, particularly Obama's campaign to a revival of the '60s. One of our key points was that we squandered all those opportunities for change and improvement when the idealists discovered how hard it was. The question that was left hanging was...and then so what ? Well that's one we still intend to hammer on, and keep hammering on. But trust our friends at Doonesbury to speak to the inspiration, the Poetry of Politics.

But further on you'll find Gov. Mario Cuomo who speaks truth to power, the voter (and we hope the reading public insofar as we reach it here).

Continue reading "Poetic Campaigns and Prosaic Policy: Realities of Change" »

Posted by dblwyo at 07:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Our posting title pretty well captures the headline reporting in the MSM and, to some extent it's fair. But when you dig thru the numbers a bit it doesn't strike us as accurate on either side. In fact we'd argue despite all the hoopla and expectations nothing much was settled nor a lot new learned.

Much as it pains me (for lots of reasons, some of which may be obvious if you've read along in this blog from time-to-time) the NYT deserves credit for a nice graphical summary of the elections and a good summary page overall. Sad when a worshipper of evidence-based decision-making ends up fighting his own feelings wouldn't you say ? :). But to give credit where it's due please take a moment and examine their stat page, particularly the respective results page/maps. (NYT Results ). 

But before diving in there you might take a moment to examine the little graphic we threw off in an idle moment or two. And ask yourself what it's depicting. (PAUSE.....).

Continue reading "Super Tues.: Barrack & Billary "Tied", John-Boy in Front ?" »

Posted by dblwyo at 01:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

One of the more interesting memes that's making the rounds in the last week or so is the notion that the reason Barrack Obama is getting so much traction is that he represents a return to the idealism of the 60's. In particular with the endorsement of the Kennedy Clan, especially Caroline's NYT OpEd piece, making the comaprison explicit it's hardly a point that could be missed. Caroline gives all due credit to her children for seeing in Barrack a new and inspiring voice. Inspiration yes ! And if you listen to his acceptance speech comparing him to JFK for eloquence is fair though they spoke about very different challenges. JFK was speaking at the heart of the Cold War and when he talked about "any price, any burden" he was talking as a decorated war hero (look up Navy Cross sometime on Wiki) and the leader responsible for fighting that war (which it was - see John Gaddis Lewis' recent short history). Barrack is talking about healing the self-inflicted wounds of partinsanship and finding a new path forward based on our common interests.

We've got several riffs and reactions to that but let's start with the accompanying YouTube video of Bob Dylan's "The Times They are A'Changin" (btw the other title reference is to George Carlin). Take a listen because it sets the table for a lot of my reactions and reflections and may do so for you as well. Before we go there though there are several other things worth pointing to as well.

Obama's accepetance of the Kennedy's support is one. And while you're there take a gander at Teddy and Caroline's speeches (NOTE: this is THE first time she's ever publically supported anyone). Another interesting discussion is the recent Charlie Rose show on the State of the Union and the speech. The last half is the one relevant for now. But if you'd really like a basis of comparison try JFK's inaugural: Part 1 and Part 2. And as you listen to those try and compare the times in your mind if you can, that is consider those times verses these. With all due respect, well try this:

In your hands, my fellow citizens, more than mine, will rest the final success or failure of our cause. Since this country was founded, each generation of Americans has been summoned to give testimony to its national loyalty. The graves of young Americans who answered the call to service surround the globe.
Now the trumpet summons us again — not as a call to bear arms, though arms we need; not as a call to battle, though embattled we are — but a call to bear the burden of a long twilight struggle, year in and year out, "rejoicing in hope, patient in tribulation" — a struggle against the common enemies of man: tyranny, poverty, disease, and war itself.
Can we forge against these enemies a grand and global alliance, North and South, East and West, that can assure a more fruitful life for all mankind? Will you join in that historic effort?
In the long history of the world, only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger. I do not shrink from this responsibility — I welcome it. I do not believe that any of us would exchange places with any other people or any other generation. The energy, the faith, the devotion which we bring to this endeavour will light our country and all who serve it — and the glow from that fire can truly light the world.
And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.
My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.
Finally, whether you are citizens of America or citizens of the world, ask of us here the same high standards of strength and sacrifice which we ask of you. With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God's work must truly be our own.

Continue reading "Times Are A'Changin: Will the 60's (Now) Be Good For Us ?" »

Posted by dblwyo at 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Well the Iowa tsunami behind us, the second wave coming today/tonight and the campagin shaking out into a real test it looks like things are going to be wide open. Thank goodness. I'm afraid a Billary vs Rudeness contest didn't appeal to me very much while an Obama vs McCain has a lot of merit. Before explaining why let me put the question to you.

How do you think the candidates should be evaluated ?

Here's some thoughts and reflections in response. But first, the video at right will take you to one of the best Charlie Rose programs with David Brooks, Paul Begala and Adam Nagourney each giving their perspectives. Brooks lays out the big picture while Paul talks more about strategy and campaign management and Nagourney provides a reporters ground-level view of tactics. There's also an interesting finale on Obama's grassroots appeal. Well worth watching.

1. Vision and Leadership

2. Character and Authenticity

3. Policies and real-world grasp

Continue reading "Let's Play President: Evaluating the Candidates" »

Posted by dblwyo at 10:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)